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Research findings exploring the economic, technological and emissions-related factors influencing the hub’s viability have now been published and are available at the links below.

Task 0: Low Emissions Hub Vision Identification

Task 0 established a shared vision for a CCUS Hub in the Northern Territory through extensive stakeholder engagement, defining key success factors and technical criteria. The report outlines a pathway for expanding CO₂ capture and storage from 5 million tonnes annually to over 25 million tonnes annually by 2040, and establishes a foundation for future development and further research.

Task 1: Northern Territory Economy, Industries and Emissions

Task 1 reviewed the Northern Territory’s economy, key industrial sectors, and historical emissions, providing a baseline for future emissions avoidance and abatement scenarios through to 2050. It highlights the need for investment in established and emerging industries to meet economic and emissions goals, including the proposed Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct, and concludes that rapid decarbonisation will require a combination of technologies like renewable electrification, hydrogen, and CCUS.

Task 2: Regional Understanding and Context

Task 2 reviews the current state of the economies of the NT’s key trading partners, their historical performance, the influence of key industrial sectors on their historical emissions, and how the decarbonisation of these industries may contribute to a regional CO2 market.

Task 3: Potential Market Analysis

Task 3 assessed current and future demand for low-emissions energy and chemical products in the NT’s major trade markets—Japan, South Korea, China, Singapore, and Taiwan. Focusing on hydrogen, ammonia, and chemical feedstocks, the report finds robust demand through 2050 across all IEA scenarios, presenting significant export opportunities for the Northern Territory.

Task 4: International Hub Examples

Task 4 provides an overview of international CCUS projects and a review and summary of selected low emission hub developments, with a particular emphasis on European hub examples. In addition to the synthesis of publicly available data the report also includes the results of CSIRO interviews with hub proponents, participants and policy makers in other jurisdictions.

Task 5: Sector Coupling Opportunities

Task 05 explored sector coupling options for existing and future industries that could be developed as part of the proposed Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct (MASDP). The report concludes that sector coupling could be used to create a low emissions production hub for the synthesis of ammonia, urea, methanol and derivatives.

Task 6: Concept specification / statement of requirement

Task 6 developed a concept-level overview for a CCUS hub, identifying potential components, infrastructure needs, and estimated costs. Using data from the Northern Territory Government, the report sets out a foundation for detailed design and cost analysis, and suggests phased CCUS hub development to enhance flexibility and control costs.

Task 7: Power Generation Options Analysis

Task 7 analysed electricity system options for the NT LEH and uses modelling to develop cost estimates for a range of scenarios. A least-cost optimisation model was used to explore the mix and location of electricity generation technologies, and associated electricity transmission and pipeline transport that could meet the industrial electricity demand and the modelled hydrogen production targets for the MASDP.

Task 8: Transnational CO2 Shipping - Logistics and Technoeconomic Model

Task 8 involved a high-level assessment of the technical, logistical, and cost considerations around CO2 shipping. The report used techno-economic modelling to estimate the levelised cost of importing CO2 from the Port of Kawasaki, Japan, to the Port of Darwin

Task 9: Opportunities for CO2 Utilisation in the Northern Territory

Task 9 explored opportunities for CO2 utilisation in the Northern Territory and calculated the levelised cost of production for five CO2 utilisation products with potential for deployment in the Northern Territory. The report concludes that a hub model can support the deployment and scale-up of CO2 utilisation activities through increased efficiencies over the medium to long term.

Next steps

The initial research covered in the first set of reports forms the scientific basis of further analysis which will set out possible pathways for the Low Emissions Hub, including shared infrastructure to enable CCUS.

This work is underway and the final series of reports will be made available when they are complete.

Research findings exploring the economic, technological and emissions-related factors influencing the hub’s viability have now been published and are available at the links below.

Task 0: Low Emissions Hub Vision Identification

Task 0 established a shared vision for a CCUS Hub in the Northern Territory through extensive stakeholder engagement, defining key success factors and technical criteria. The report outlines a pathway for expanding CO₂ capture and storage from 5 million tonnes annually to over 25 million tonnes annually by 2040, and establishes a foundation for future development and further research.

Task 1: Northern Territory Economy, Industries and Emissions

Task 1 reviewed the Northern Territory’s economy, key industrial sectors, and historical emissions, providing a baseline for future emissions avoidance and abatement scenarios through to 2050. It highlights the need for investment in established and emerging industries to meet economic and emissions goals, including the proposed Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct, and concludes that rapid decarbonisation will require a combination of technologies like renewable electrification, hydrogen, and CCUS.

Task 2: Regional Understanding and Context

Task 2 reviews the current state of the economies of the NT’s key trading partners, their historical performance, the influence of key industrial sectors on their historical emissions, and how the decarbonisation of these industries may contribute to a regional CO2 market.

Task 3: Potential Market Analysis

Task 3 assessed current and future demand for low-emissions energy and chemical products in the NT’s major trade markets—Japan, South Korea, China, Singapore, and Taiwan. Focusing on hydrogen, ammonia, and chemical feedstocks, the report finds robust demand through 2050 across all IEA scenarios, presenting significant export opportunities for the Northern Territory.

Task 4: International Hub Examples

Task 4 provides an overview of international CCUS projects and a review and summary of selected low emission hub developments, with a particular emphasis on European hub examples. In addition to the synthesis of publicly available data the report also includes the results of CSIRO interviews with hub proponents, participants and policy makers in other jurisdictions.

Task 5: Sector Coupling Opportunities

Task 05 explored sector coupling options for existing and future industries that could be developed as part of the proposed Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct (MASDP). The report concludes that sector coupling could be used to create a low emissions production hub for the synthesis of ammonia, urea, methanol and derivatives.

Task 6: Concept specification / statement of requirement

Task 6 developed a concept-level overview for a CCUS hub, identifying potential components, infrastructure needs, and estimated costs. Using data from the Northern Territory Government, the report sets out a foundation for detailed design and cost analysis, and suggests phased CCUS hub development to enhance flexibility and control costs.

Task 7: Power Generation Options Analysis

Task 7 analysed electricity system options for the NT LEH and uses modelling to develop cost estimates for a range of scenarios. A least-cost optimisation model was used to explore the mix and location of electricity generation technologies, and associated electricity transmission and pipeline transport that could meet the industrial electricity demand and the modelled hydrogen production targets for the MASDP.

Task 8: Transnational CO2 Shipping - Logistics and Technoeconomic Model

Task 8 involved a high-level assessment of the technical, logistical, and cost considerations around CO2 shipping. The report used techno-economic modelling to estimate the levelised cost of importing CO2 from the Port of Kawasaki, Japan, to the Port of Darwin

Task 9: Opportunities for CO2 Utilisation in the Northern Territory

Task 9 explored opportunities for CO2 utilisation in the Northern Territory and calculated the levelised cost of production for five CO2 utilisation products with potential for deployment in the Northern Territory. The report concludes that a hub model can support the deployment and scale-up of CO2 utilisation activities through increased efficiencies over the medium to long term.

Next steps

The initial research covered in the first set of reports forms the scientific basis of further analysis which will set out possible pathways for the Low Emissions Hub, including shared infrastructure to enable CCUS.

This work is underway and the final series of reports will be made available when they are complete.

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