Northern Territory Low Emissions Carbon Capture Storage and Utilisation Hub
Northern Territory Economy, Industries and Emissions Ð Task 1 Report
Jody Rogers, Ryan Gee, Andrew Ross, Matt Ironside, Indiana Squiers

December 2024


CSIRO Energy
Citation
Rogers J.L., Gee R., Ross A., Ironside M., Squiers, I. (2024) Northern Territory Low Emissions Carbon Capture Storage and Utilisation Hub. Northern Territory Economy, Industries and Emissions Ð Task 1 Report. CSIRO report number EP2024-6135, pp 76.  CSIRO, Australia.
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Foreword
Transitioning the global energy system while rapidly reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 is a vast and complex global challenge. 
Modelling of a range of emissions pathways and decarbonisation scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023a), International Energy Agency (IEA, 2024a) and Net Zero Australia (NZA, 2024) shows that to meet net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets by 2050, a wide range of emissions reduction technologies will be required to decarbonise existing and future industries globally (IPCC, 2023b).
These organisations identify that emissions elimination from hard-to-abate and high-emissions industries will require the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) alongside other abatement strategies, such as electrification, underpinned by power generation from renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind.
Globally, there is considerable effort to identify industrial hubs and clusters where common user infrastructure can enable rapid decarbonisation of existing industries and enable future low-emissions industrial development. 
Australia has an opportunity to create new low-carbon growth industries and jobs in these areas, but lacks the infrastructure, skills base and business models to realise this. The transition to net zero will have disproportionate impact on regional communities, particularly those reliant on industries in transition, but it may also create economic opportunities through a wide range of new industries and jobs suited to regional areas.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is working to identify decarbonisation and transition pathways for existing and potential future industries that may be established in the Northern Territory by developing a Low Emissions Hub concept in the Darwin region. 
CSIRO has established a portfolio of projects to explore and evaluate a range of approaches and technologies to quantify and achieve the required emissions reductions. This includes research into the Northern TerritoryÕs renewable energy potential, hydrogen demand, generation and storage capacity, and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) potential. CSIRO is working collaboratively with industry and governments to understand their needs, drivers and strategic directions so that our research is informed and relevant. This includes establishing appropriate pathways and partnerships to understand and incorporate the perspectives of First Nations peoples.
A key activity is the research into a business case project (CSIRO, 2024b) (Ross et al., 2022) that aims to enhance understanding of the viability of a CCUS hub centred on the Middle Arm of Darwin Harbour. 
The work has three elements comprising 15 tasks: 
1. analysing macroeconomic drivers, Northern Territory and regional emissions, low-emissions product markets (Ross et al., 2023a), identifying key learnings from other low-emissions hubs being developed globally, and cross-sector coupling opportunities (Tasks 0?5) 
2. completing CCUS hub technical definition and technical risk reduction studies, including detailed studies on the infrastructure requirements for a CCUS hub, renewable power requirements for existing and potential future industries, and road-mapping for CO2 utilisation industries that could be established to produce low or net zero products (e.g. zero-emission chemical feedstocks) (CSIRO, 2023) (Tasks 6?9)
3. creating a business case to appreciate the scale of investment required to develop a Low Emissions Hub and the economic returns from doing so; this will lead to suggested business models and routes for their execution (Tasks 10?14). 
The CCUS business case project will involve research that is based on possible industrial development scenarios, models of future potential emissions, market demand, enabling technologies and costs. The project is intended to provide an understanding of possible future outcomes. Industry development will be determined by investment decisions of individual industry proponents, framed by government policies and regulation, and constrained by the development trajectories of enabling technologies essential for the energy and emissions transition. 
On completion of this research, outcomes of the CCUS business case project will be made publicly available. 
The work summarised in this report comprises Task 1 of the Northern Territory CCUS business case project. It provides an overview of the Northern TerritoryÕs economy and future growth ambitions, as well as key industrial activities and their historical greenhouse gas emissions. The report also analyses the magnitude of the avoidance and abatement technologies that will be required to enable emissions reductions from current Northern Territory industries as well as future industry development scenarios.

Contents
Acknowledgements	vii
Abbreviations		viii
Summary		x
1	Introduction	1
2	The Northern Territory economy	3
2.1	Current economic snapshot	3
2.2	Historical economic performance	4
2.3	Key industrial sectors	5
2.4	Economic growth	6
3	Key Northern Territory industrial activities	11
3.1	Mining and energy	11
3.2	Manufacturing	18
4	Northern Territory historical emissions	20
5	Northern Territory projected emissions avoidance and abatement potential	23
5.1	Method	24
5.2	Scenarios	26
5.3	Avoidance and abatement options	30
6	Conclusions	47
References		48
Appendix		52


Figures
Figure 1: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð NT Base Scenario	xiv
Figure 2: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð NT Reference Scenario	xiv
Figure 3: Northern Territory low-emissions hub concept	2
Figure 4: Northern Territory economic snapshot, 2022?23	4
Figure 5: Northern Territory historical economic growth	5
Figure 6: Northern Territory industrial sector composition, by percentage of GSP, 1990?2023	6
Figure 7: Northern Territory economic growth, by sector	7
Figure 8: Australian economic growth outlook, by source, 2024	9
Figure 9: Global economic growth outlook, by source, 2024	10
Figure 10: The contribution of the mining and energy sector to the Northern Territory economy, as a percentage of GSP	11
Figure 11: Northern Territory mines and gas pipeline infrastructure	13
Figure 12: Northern Territory labour market	14
Figure 13: Northern Territory onshore and offshore conventional oil and gas fields and pipelines	15
Figure 14: Australian wind resource map	17
Figure 15: Australian solar irradiance map	17
Figure 16 Geothermal permits under application by Hydro X Gen	18
Figure 17: Australian scope 1 CO2-e emissions by state as a percentage of the total	20
Figure 18: Northern Territory historical emissions by sector under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change guidelines	21
Figure 19: A map of point-source emissions and the distance of these emissions from existing pipeline and port infrastructure	22
Figure 20: CSIRO emissions database workflow	24
Figure 21: Emissions outlook with no avoidance or abatement Ð Base Scenario	27
Figure 22: Reference Scenario industrial development timeline	28
Figure 23: Emissions outlook with no avoidance or abatement Ð Reference Scenario	29
Figure 24: A map of hydrogen, CCS and renewable power stations	30
Figure 25: Emissions outlook with renewable electrification Ð Base Scenario	33
Figure 26: Emissions outlook with renewable electrification Ð Reference Scenario	34
Figure 27: Emissions outlook with hydrogen abatement Ð Base Scenario	36
Figure 28: Emissions outlook with hydrogen abatement Ð Reference Scenario	37
Figure 29: Bayu-Undan CCS project	38
Figure 30: 2021 greenhouse gas permits acreage release, Petrel Sub-basin	39
Figure 31: CCS suitable locations determined by Geoscience Australia for the eastern Petrel Sub-basin	39
Figure 32: Emissions outlook with CCS abatement Ð Base Scenario	41
Figure 33: Emissions outlook with CCS abatement Ð Reference Scenario	42
Figure 34: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð Base Scenario	43
Figure 35: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð Reference Scenario	44



Tables 
Table 1: Northern Territory current renewable power generation facilities	31
Table 2: Northern Territory installed but not operational large-scale renewable power generation facilities	31
Table 3: Northern Territory proposed renewable power generation projects	32
Table 4: Northern Territory proposed hydrogen projects	35



Acknowledgements
CSIRO acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the land, sea and waters, of the area that we live and work on across Australia. We acknowledge their continuing connection to their culture, and we pay our respects to their Elders past and present.
The authors of this report acknowledge the support and funding provided by CSIRO to undertake this work. We thank the internal CSIRO independent peer reviewers for their review of the report and valuable comments and suggestions.
While this report is an output from a CSIRO-funded initiative, we thank our industry and government collaborators for their insights, contributions and suggestions, which have improved the report outcomes. 
Although CSIRO has sought feedback from government and industry on the technical content of the report, CSIRO has sole discretion on including such feedback.



Abbreviations
AGRU
Acid gas removal unit
ARENA
Australian Renewable Energy Agency
CCS
Carbon capture and storage
CCUS
Carbon capture utilisation and storage
COP21
UN Climate Change Conference No. 21 (Paris, November 2015)
CSIRO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
DKES
Darwin Katherine Electricity System
DLNG
Darwin liquified natural gas project
FEED
Front-end engineering design
FID
Final investment decision 
GDP
Gross domestic product
GSP
Gross state product
Gt
Giga tonnes (109 tonnes)
GW
Gigawatt (109 watts)
IEA
International Energy Agency
ILNG
Ichthys liquified natural gas project
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LEH
Low Emissions Hub
LNG
Liquefied natural gas
LULUCF
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MASDP
Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct
Mtpa
Million tonnes per annum (106 tonnes per year)
MW
Megawatt (106 watts)
NGERS
National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme
NT-DIPL
Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Logistics
NT LEH
Northern Territory Low Emissions Hub
NTG
Northern Territory Government
tcf
Trillion cubic feet (109 cubic feet)
Tj
Terajoule
tpa
Tonnes per annum 

CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS
CH4
Methane
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CO2-e
Carbon dioxide equivalent
H2
Hydrogen 
HFCs
Hydrofluorocarbons
NF3
Nitrogen trifluoride 
NOx
Nitrogen oxides
N2O
Nitrous oxide
PFCs
Perfluorocarbons
SF6
Sulphur hexafluoride


Summary
The Northern Territory Low Emissions Hub (NT LEH) business case project reviews the commercial feasibility of developing the Middle Arm Precinct as a low-emissions hub with new industries to assist the Territory to meet its objective of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 while growing its economy to $40 billion by 2030. 
This report reviews the current state of the Northern TerritoryÕs economy, its historical performance, the influence of key industrial sectors, historical emissions, and possible future avoidance and abatement scenarios through to 2050. The report also provides framing for the rest of the task reports associated with the CCUS business case project. 
The Northern Territory is a small open economy strategically located on the doorstep of Asia. Its economy is just 1.3% of the Australian gross domestic product (GDP) (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2023), roughly in proportion (~1%) to its share of the total population. The largest sector of the economy is mining (which includes energy), accounting for 28% of the gross state product (GSP). This and sectors such as the public sector and defence services have influenced the strong growth in the economy over the past two decades. 
Northern Territory CO2-e emissions for the 2022?23 year were reported as 16.7 Mtpa originating from five sectors: energy; industrial processes and product use; agriculture; land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF); and waste (DCCEEW, 2024a). The historical sectorial emissions show that although they were dominated by agriculture and land use, the energy sector has become the dominant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions over the past two decades. The growth in greenhouse gas emissions from this sector coincides with the commissioning of Darwin LNG (DLNG) in 2006 and Ichthys LNG (ILNG) in 2018.
The Northern Territory GovernmentÕs growth aspiration to reach a $40 billion economy by 2030 requires compound annual growth of 5.6% per year, significantly above the historical average growth of 3.7% per year since 2014. To meet the governmentÕs economic and emissions trajectory targets, investment is required in established sectors such as mining and energy as well as the development of new industries that materially reduce interim and long-term emissions. The Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct (MASDP), as proposed by the Northern Territory Government, has been identified as a prospective location for new industries to be established. As a result, the MASDP Balanced Scenario (see box below) has been included in the emissions projections in this report. 
Forecasts of emissions and avoidance and abatement alternatives are evaluated for two scenarios:
* the Base Scenario, which includes only the operation of approved projects 
* the Reference Scenario, which includes both the Balanced Scenario developments and future mining and energy developments. 


The Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct - Balanced Scenario 
The Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure Planning and Logistics has defined the possible makeup of future industries that could be situated in the MASDP in its Balanced Scenario (this scenario uses the widest range of industries that are envisaged to be established in the MASDP). The actual industrial mix that is established in the MASDP may not match the exact composition used here, but the Balanced Scenario offers a way to align with other modelling and design activities that the Northern Territory Government is pursuing, and therefore this scenario has been chosen for the whole of the CCUS business case project. The industries included in this scenario are the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen (both from steam methane reforming [SMR] and electrolysis based), methanol, ammonia (one based on hydrogen from SMR, and another on that from electrolysis), urea, ethylene, CCUS and critical minerals processing (e.g. lithium, vanadium).
To understand the potential demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions in the Northern Territory, there is need for an appreciation of future emissions and how they can be avoided or contained. This requires analysis of both existing emissions and projections of unconstrained emissions from future industrial development scenarios that have already been proposed, or that are foreseeable based on regional markets and trends. For clarity, existing legislation and associated regulation (e.g. the Safeguard Mechanism) would rule out unconstrained emissions for new industrial developments, and the projections here are made explicitly for the purpose of establishing potential demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions. Once understood, this potential demand can inform future strategies and the scale that is required for implementation of these solutions ? this includes understanding the demand for CCS. Thus, care is required when reading the emissions reduction scenario modelling results and interpreting the charts presented in this report.
The emissions reduction scenario modelling results are intended to aid our understanding of possible future outcomes. Industrial development over the next decades will be determined by investment decisions made by individual companies, steered by government policies and regulations, and constrained by how quickly key technologies essential to enabling the energy and emissions transition are adopted. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have not been developed as part of this study as these would be typically developed by individual industry participants to help manage their emissions.
As with all emissions reduction scenario modelling, the results are subject to imperfections in the input data and assumptions used. There are also many methods and approaches that can be used to establish demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions. The authors acknowledge that this is an area of significant debate and that others may come to different conclusions. To this end and wherever possible, input data have been identified and the assumptions made have been articulated so that there is transparency about how the results have been derived.
Emissions avoidance and abatement options are evaluated, from renewable electrification to low-emissions hydrogen generation and CCS. To enable analysis of emissions point sources, CO2-e emissions data for emitters greater than ~10,000 tpa have been collated from a range of published sources. 
Using current industry emissions, publicly available corporate data and benchmarking for new industries, emissions projections were derived over the study period (to 2050). It should be noted that carbon offsets were not considered in any of the models. It is assumed that obligations to abate residual emissions could be managed through offsets with a financial cost; however, which offsets would be used and how they might be traded is outside the scope of this report.
Modelled data are presented by emissions type rather than by industry sector, as only emissions type informs the ability to avoid or abate. The one exception to this rule is consideration of offshore emissions associated with natural gas production in the Browse and Bonaparte basins in the Timor Sea, where it is assumed that these emissions will be much more difficult to avoid and abate than equivalent point-source emissions on land.
The types of point-source emissions considered in the analysis are:
* acid gas removal unit (AGRU) emissions Ð emissions generated from the separation of CO2 from natural gas and other products (e.g. methane-derived hydrogen)
* turbines Ð open and combined cycle gas turbines
* reciprocating engines Ð stationary reciprocating engines for the purpose of electricity generation
* industrial process flaring Ð emissions generated during the burning of waste flammable products during operations
* furnaces and boilers Ð emissions generated by furnace and boiler operations
* production emissions Ð process emissions not included in the categories above, including fugitive emissions of methane and CO2.
In the emissions avoidance and abatement models developed, the following assumptions were used in addressing each emissions category: 
* For AGRU emissions, only CCS (carbon storage) was determined as a suitable abatement technology. 
* For gas turbine emissions, appropriate technologies for emissions reduction were determined to be renewable electrification, hydrogen fuel substitution and CO2 capture. The exception to this assumption was for gas turbines situated in remote areas away from Darwin, such as mine sites and remote communities. In these cases, only renewable electrification was determined to be a realistic pathway to emissions reduction. 
* For reciprocating engine emissions, only renewable electrification was considered as a realistic pathway to emissions reduction. 
* Industrial process flaring was assumed not to be addressable through electrification, hydrogen fuel substitution or CCS. This is considered to be a conservative assumption, as industries seek to minimise flaring operations. 
* For furnaces and boilers, assumed pathways to reduce emissions were fuel substitution using hydrogen and/or capture of CO2 emissions. 
* Production emissions were determined to be suitable for CO2 capture only within the Middle Arm, while other process emissions generated remotely were determined not to be suitable for avoidance and abatement. This is a conservative assumption as it would be expected that individual industries and sites would work towards reduction of these emissions. 
An emissions reduction driver that is not considered in this report is the impact of increased efficiency, which is discussed in the Task 5 report (Czapla et al., 2024). Further conservative assumptions on the degree of take-up of each of the emissions avoidance and abatement technologies were made for both scenarios. 
The scenario models show that no single emissions reduction technology can achieve rapid decarbonisation of the point-source emissions in the Northern Territory. A combination of approaches is therefore required to reduce emissions as the economy expands. The combined Base Scenario model leads to a decreasing emissions trajectory through to 2050, where residual emissions comprise less than 1 Mtpa CO2-e: these are almost exclusively associated with offshore emissions (Figure 1).
For the Reference Scenario, combined avoidance and abatement model net emissions are dramatically reduced. However, for most of the period between 2024 and 2050, apart from the years 2036?38, point-source emissions are below 10 Mtpa CO2-e, with emissions steadily declining to just over 5 Mtpa CO2-e from 2038 to 2050. 
For both scenarios modelled, these residual emissions comprise offshore emissions and process emissions (Figure 2). The degree to which offshore emissions can be reduced will depend on the suitability, cost and technical maturity of abatement technologies. It is probable that to gain development approvals, the proponents of any future projects will need to have demonstrably sought to mitigate these process emissions through deployment of avoidance and abatement technologies. Given this constraint, the residual emissions predicted by the combined models are likely to represent a conservative outcome. In the eventuality that these emissions cannot be avoided or abated, offsets or direct air capture could be considered.
The ultimate mix of solutions to decarbonise the Northern Territory economy will be based on decision making that ensures the financial viability of future industries in the framework of government policies, legislation and regulation. At the same time, enabling technologies bringing efficiency gains and emissions reductions must be developed to maturity and deployed at reasonable cost. Additional studies and further development of low-emissions technologies will be required before a preferred abatement option path to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 can be determined for the Northern Territory economy.
It should be reiterated that in the two scenarios explored, and in the emissions models developed, consideration of the actual costs of implementing the emission reductions steps is excluded (this is addressed through the other tasks in the CCUS business case project). The purpose of the analysis here is to explore the possible emissions avoidance or abatement demand that could be required into the future based on the Base and Reference scenarios.

Figure 1: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð NT Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix

Figure 2: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð NT Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix

1 
1 Introduction
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change that was adopted by 196 parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) on 12 December 2015 and came into force on 4 November 2016. The goal of the agreement is to maintain global warming to less than 1.5¡C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.
As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, Australia has made commitments to:
¥	reduce its greenhouse gas emissions
¥	track progress towards those commitments
¥	report each year on its greenhouse gas emissions. 
Northern Territory Climate Change Response: Towards 2050 (NTG, 2020), issued in July 2020, provides a policy framework that will enable the Northern Territory to strategically manage climate change risk and opportunities. It identifies four key objectives to inform future actions and guide development of mitigation and adaptation strategies:
* achieve net zero emissions
* build a resilient Territory
* unlock opportunities from a low carbon future
* inform and involve all Territorians.
This is balanced by the Northern Territory GovernmentÕs economic targets to drive growth and development over the next 10 years, with 2030 targets to grow the economy to $40 billion (from its current $30.1 billion), and to increase the population to 300,000 (from about 250,000) (NTG, 2023b).
The Northern Territory Low Emissions Hub CCUS business case project aims to understand the feasibility of incorporating CCUS into the MASDP to enable its development as a low-emissions industrial hub (e.g. Figure 3) to help the Territory reduce its emissions footprint while growing the economy and population.
Meeting the emissions reduction goals for the Northern Territory while maintaining and growing the economy will require rapid decarbonisation and transition of existing industries within the Territory and the development of new net zero industries. These industries will produce low-emissions products for the Territory, Australia and the Asia-pacific region. 
This report reviews the current state of the Northern Territory economy, its historical performance, the influence of key industrial sectors, historical emissions, and possible future avoidance and abatement scenarios through to 2050. The report has been developed to be accessible to a general audience and to be a summary of both CSIRO and external data and literature. Where possible, data used are publicly available and are cited to allow the reader to inform their own judgements. As with all reports and analyses that attempt to understand future directions, these are based on existing analysis, scenarios and interpretation of available data and literature. We acknowledge that the pathways to greenhouse gas emissions reductions are an area of significant debate, with many different perspectives on how to achieve global net zero ambitions. The information provided herein provides one perspective among a range of future options.

Figure 3: Northern Territory low-emissions hub concept
2 The Northern Territory economy
2.1 Current economic snapshot
The Northern Territory is a small open economy strategically located on the doorstep of Asia. Its growth has historically relied on private investment in major projects and net exports, which are influenced by macroeconomic conditions such as the strength of the Australian dollar and energy prices. The economy is dominated by natural resource production, a large public sector and sizeable defence force establishments. The economy relies on a small population (~1% of AustraliaÕs population), sparsely distributed over a large area that is remote from other population centres across the rest of Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2021).
Resource extraction (including mineral mining and on- and offshore oil and gas) accounts for 28% of the GSP and is the single largest sector of the economy. The Territory has a wide range of minerals and hydrocarbon resources which have historically contributed to its economic growth. The first uranium rock samples were delivered to the Mines Branch in Darwin on 13 August 1949 and mining began in 1953, but ceased in January 2021 with significant undeveloped resources remaining (NTG, 2024i).
Gold discoveries near Tennant Creek were made throughout the 1960s and much larger gold deposits were found closer to Darwin in the 1970s (Ahmad et al., 1999). Other major mining operations include zinc, lead, silver, manganese, bauxite, magnetite, ilmenite and lithium.
Hydrocarbons were first discovered onshore in 1963 with the Mereenie field in the Amadeus Basin in the far south of the state, and offshore in 1975 with the Sunrise and Troubadour fields (NTG, 2023a). Onshore production started in 1983 in the Palm Valley and Mereenie fields, but the first offshore production was in 1986 with Jabiru oil. Gas is the predominant hydrocarbon being produced and processed in the Territory, with the Darwin LNG project (Bayu-Undan field in the Timor Sea) and Ichthys LNG project (transported by an 890 km subsea pipeline from the Browse Basin off Western Australia) being the most significant contributors to international exports from the Territory.
In 2022?23, the Northern Territory economy was worth $30.1 billion, with business investment contributing $4.7 billion and net exports $10.0 billion (NTG, 2024e). In December 2023 the population was estimated at 253,815 with 138,200 people employed (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2024b). Median weekly earnings were $1,427 per week compared with $1,300 for the rest of Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2023b)1 (Figure 4). 

Figure 4: Northern Territory economic snapshot, 2022?23
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023b; 2024b), NTG (2024e)
2.2 Historical economic performance
Since GSP began being reported in 1990, the Northern Territory economy has grown by more than $28 billion, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% (although it has slowed over the period and the average for the last 10 years is 3.7% per year). Growth through the period has been supported by investment in a succession of major projects in the mining sector (including hydrocarbons), with the added generation of investment in the broader economy (Australian Government, 2023). Additional investment in the public sector and defence force operations have also contributed to growth.
Historically, economic performance has been characterised by periods of high economic growth due to large private capital investment and associated phases of construction (e.g. the development of the Darwin and Ichthys LNG projects) and periods of slower economic growth when economic performance is determined more by the growth rate in private and public consumption (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Northern Territory historical economic growth 
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023a)
2.3 Key industrial sectors
The Northern TerritoryÕs industrial sector composition is dominated by mining and energy, which represented 28% of industrial output in 2023 (Figure 6). Secondary industrial sectors including construction and manufacturing were less prominent, contributing less than 10% each to industrial output in the same period.
The MASDP has the potential to broaden this industrial base and somewhat reduce reliance on mining and energy. Like previous large resource projects, future industrial development in the MASDP will have an initial high level of construction spend. However, if this spend supports the development of downstream processing through value-add industries such as ammonia, urea, CO2 permanent storage and advanced manufacturing, it has the potential to help diversify the economy and reduce its exposure to changes in global commodity prices.

Figure 6: Northern Territory industrial sector composition, by percentage of GSP, 1990?2023
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023a)
2.4 Economic growth
2.4.1 Northern Territory aspirations
The Northern Territory Government has set an ambitious strategy to grow the economy in future decades. This strategy includes diversifying the industrial base with the aim to have more sustainable growth in GSP. Key elements of the strategy include:
¥	grow the GSP to $40 billion by 2030
¥	diversify the industrial sectors and markets
¥	have a net zero economy by 2050
¥	add 35,000 new jobs by 2030
¥	increase the population to 300,000.		
To reach a $40 billion economy by 2030, the Territory needs to achieve compound annual growth of 5.6% per year. This is significantly above the average growth of 3.7% per year since 2014, which includes investment in the Darwin and Ichthys LNG projects, the Montara oil field development and Groote Eylandt magnesium expansion project (Figure 7).
The economy is predominantly made up of private and public expenditure, with net international exports (~$10 billion) slightly exceeding the interstate trade deficit in 2021. Public and private investment make up the rest of the economy, with private investment the next largest contributor to growth.


Note dashed line is NT GSP
Figure 7: Northern Territory economic growth, by sector 
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023a)
Growth in private and public expenditure is traditionally stable and ordinarily would be expected to add around $4?5 billion to GSP by 2030 based on historical trends. This leaves a gap of ~$10 billion per year in public and private investment or net exports if the government is to meet its objective of a $40 billion economy by 2030. 
To meet the other objectives of net zero emissions by 2050 and diversify the industrial sector, the type of investment will be equally important as the quantum. Investment in low-emissions technology such as hydrogen generation from renewable electricity, minerals processing and CCS in the MASDP has the potential to provide this diversification and help the Territory to deliver on its other strategic objectives.
2.4.2 Australian economic outlook
The Australian economy entered a recession (defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth) in the first half of 2020 due to the economic impacts of health policies designed to combat the spread of COVID-19 and to consumer and business uncertainty around the post-pandemic outlook.
It has since grown strongly. Domestic demand has recovered as households have begun to increase spending due to government stimulus programs. The housing sector has remained buoyant as interest rates were cut towards zero by the Reserve Bank of Australia and state borders re-opened after the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. Exports also supported growth as broad-based strength in demand for AustraliaÕs mining output, rural produce, energy and services (e.g. education as foreign students returned) has continued. Imports have detracted slightly from growth recently after travel restrictions eased and an increased number of Australians began to travel abroad in 2022.2 
As domestic demand has strengthened following the Australian economyÕs recovery from COVID, rising energy prices together with disruptions to global supply chains have led to broad-based price pressures building across the economy. In the 12 months to September 2022, the consumer price index increased by 7.3%, employment recovered strongly with low levels of unemployment and high labour market participation, but the labour market remained tight. As a result, wages growth began to accelerate and the Reserve Bank of Australia tightened the Australian cash rate rapidly from mid-2022. The result of this tightening of the cash rate and fiscal measures implemented by the Australian Government in 2022 and 2023 has been a slowing of the economy, and in the 12 months to January 2024 the consumer price index increased by just 3.4% (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2024c).
The majority of forecasters expect growth to continue in 2024?25, at a rate of between 1% and 2% (Figure 8). This is in line with the governmentÕs projection of 1.5% growth in 2023?24 and maintaining at least a 2% per annum growth rate over the forward estimates (The Commonwealth of Australia, 2023).
Strong domestic conditions are likely to support the Northern Territory economy in the near to medium term. Key concerns though are likely to centre around the impact of rising interest rates on private investment after a period of very low lending costs and the potential for labour shortages.


Figure 8: Australian economic growth outlook, by source, 2024
Source: Australian Treasury (2024), Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024a), OECD (2024), International Monetary Fund (2024a)
2.4.3 Global economic outlook
The Northern Territory economy is relatively small and reliant on global economic, commodity and geopolitical conditions for exports and private investment.
After a long period of stable global economic conditions characterised by low inflation, low interest rates, strong growth and a cooperative geopolitical environment, the global economic outlook has deteriorated in recent years due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated disruptions to demand and global supply chains. In addition, the geopolitical environment has deteriorated with the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, various countries having trade disputes with China, and the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Palestine. Rising global inflation has also led to a rapid increase in interest rates across the globe as central banks seek to rein in inflation and restore price stability.
Risks to the global outlook in the near term remain weighted to the downside (Figure 9). A sharp deceleration in global growth is more likely than a rapid improvement as central banks continue to maintain existing monetary policy settings, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies, China (the worldÕs second-largest economy) battles the residual effects of opening its economy after COVID-19 lockdowns, and food security becomes a global concern as reduced gas supplies and potash exports from Russia and Belarus threaten the global availability of fertiliser. These and other factors (such as increasing levels of protectionism, fragmentation of globalisation and rapidly accelerating regional geopolitical tensions) lead to greater economic uncertainty, which will be reflected in increased costs of lending or higher requirements for investment certainty by financial institutions. 


Figure 9: Global economic growth outlook, by source, 2024 
Source: International Monetary Fund (2024b), OECD (2024), World Bank Group (2024), United Nations (2024)
The Northern Territory economy is relatively well placed to navigate the current challenging global economic outlook. Reduced Russian gas supplies into Europe mean that demand is likely to remain strong for the TerritoryÕs key export LNG at potentially elevated prices. Demand for minerals, particularly manganese (a key input into electric car batteries), also remains strong. Rising fertiliser prices may negatively impact the agriculture industry in the near term, although agriculture represents a relatively small part of the Territory economy (<5%).
Longer term, the key challenge to economic growth will be how countries can support growth in their economies while maintaining living standards as they incur the expense of seeking targets of net zero emissions by 2050.
3 Key Northern Territory industrial activities
3.1 Mining and energy
In 2023 the mining and energy sector made up approximately 28% of Northern Territory GSP (NTG, 2024g) Figure 6). The sector has been a key driver of GSP growth over the last two decades, although its contribution has swung between a high of 29.7% of GSP in 2007 and a low of 12.6% in 2017 (Figure 10). These swings are due to the cyclical nature of construction spending on the large resource projects that were developed during the period. The economyÕs reliance on mining and energy means that economic growth will remain volatile while a significant portion of the economy remains exposed to external economic fluctuations such as commodity prices and the Australian dollar. This volatility in the mining and energy sector creates problems for government infrastructure and services planning, with transient workforces and short-term peaks in demand for infrastructure such as accommodation and air travel.

Figure 10: The contribution of the mining and energy sector to the Northern Territory economy, as a percentage of GSP 
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023a)
The mining and energy sector covers a broad range of projects and commodities, with bauxite, gold, iron ore, manganese and zinc/lead currently the most important by value. Global demand for the TerritoryÕs minerals is expected to continue to grow in the medium term as demand for new energy minerals (such as lithium, vanadium and manganese) to support decarbonisation grows rapidly and global economic growth stabilises as the world moves on from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mining contributes to the economy during exploration, construction and operations. It adds to economic growth through investment, private expenditure, local employment, and global and international exports.
The Northern Territory currently has several mineral projects pending approval, with the potential to boost mining investment spend in the Territory (Figure 11). Key projects awaiting approval include:
¥ Amaroo phosphate project
¥ Darwin Mineral Sands separation project
¥ Fountain Head gold
¥ Hayes Creek gold-silver-zinc project
¥ Jervois copper mine
¥ Lithium ferro-phosphate battery cathode manufacturing
¥ Merlin diamond project
¥ Molyhil tungsten-molybdenum critical minerals
¥ Mount Bundy gold project 
¥ Mount Todd gold mine
¥ Nolans rare earths mine
¥ Rover 1 copper, gold, cobalt and magnetite project
¥ Speewah TIVAN+ MASDP project
¥ Tennant Mining gold-processing facility
¥ Winchelsea manganese mine
¥ Wonarah phosphate project (NTG (2024a).
A number of these projects focus on minerals vital to global efforts to bring emissions to net zero by 2050. With demand for such minerals currently high, these projects are expected to appeal to private investors.

Figure 11: Northern Territory mines and gas pipeline infrastructure 
Source: NTG (2024h)
A key risk to the mining and energy sector includes the ongoing regional conflicts disrupting the global economy to the extent that global commodity demand begins to fall. Unemployment in the Northern Territory has been sitting flat at 4.4% (annual average) for the past 18 months (Figure 12), which is marginally above the national unemployment rate of 3.9% (annual average) in June 2024 (NTG, 2024d). Labour shortages nationwide could also curtail companiesÕ ability to execute planned projects. 

Figure 12: Northern Territory labour market 
Source: NTG (2024d)
Hydrocarbon production in the Northern Territory began onshore in 1983?84 in the Amadeus Basin near Alice Springs from the Palm Valley and Mereenie fields (Figure 13). These fields supplied gas to the greater Darwin area via ~1658 km of the Amadeus Pipeline. Since 2019 the Northern Gas Pipeline has connected the Amadeus Basin production to the gas market in the eastern states. 
The oil and gas sector in the Territory is currently dominated by the 3.7 Mtpa capacity Darwin LNG and 9.3 Mtpa Ichthys LNG projects, which are located at Wickham Point on the Middle Arm just south of Darwin. Both projects are supplied from offshore gas fields located in Commonwealth waters (Figure 13). 
* Darwin LNG started production in 2006 and is supplied by the Bayu-Undan gas field located 500 km offshore to the north-west of Darwin. Bayu-Undan is nearing the end of field life and transitioned to production of gas for the Northern Territory domestic market on 30 November 2023. Extension of the Darwin LNG facility will occur due to the investment decision for development of the Barossa gas field and Darwin LNG life-extension which was taken in March 2021, with a targeted start date of the third quarter of 2025 (Santos, 2021; 2024). Bayu-Undan is currently being evaluated for re-purposing of wells and facilities for carbon sequestration with a planned capacity of 10 Mtpa (Santos, 2022); focus is now on working with Timor-Leste government regarding implementation of required regulatory and fiscal frameworks, approvals and government to government agreements.. 
* Ichthys LNG began processing gas from the Ichthys gas field (located some 800 km to the north-west) in 2018. Production is expected to continue until the mid-2050s with ongoing development drilling expected to bring gas reservoirs from deeper in the field online. Multiple gas fields have been identified in the Browse and Bonaparte basins, which may backfill the Ichthys LNG facility.

Figure 13: Northern Territory onshore and offshore conventional oil and gas fields and pipelines
In addition, the Blacktip field has been providing domestic gas to Darwin via the Yelcherr Gas Plant near Wadeye since 2006, but production is nearing the end of its economically recoverable reserves, which are expected to extend only to 2026 (Eni, 2024). An application for drilling an infill well at Blacktip was approved by the regulator in July 2024 (NOPSEMA, 2024). The Verus field (previously Evans Shoal) operated by Eni could potentially backfill Blacktip gas and feed a second train at Darwin LNG. The Petrel and Frigate fields operated by Eni and Santos respectively are also candidates for domestic gas closer to Darwin. Onshore, the Beetaloo Basin is emerging as a potentially liquid-rich shale play that could provide domestic gas or LNG backfill at scale (NTG, 2023a).
Gas from the Palm Valley, Mereenie and Dingo fields in the Amadeus Basin is supplied to customers for power stations, mine sites, energy wholesalers and retailers in Central and Northern Australia via the Northern Gas Pipeline, which began operation in 2019 (APGA, 2023). 
In the near term, global demand for low-emissions intensity natural gas energy will increase as economies in Europe and Asia rebound (IEA, 2024b). Critical minerals are also crucial for the move to low-emissions energy, particularly for batteries, which will encourage investment in projects that develop these minerals (NTG, 2024g). Strong demand for LNG and critical minerals is expected to continue to support the Northern Territory economy in the medium term (NTG, 2024g). 
The Northern Territory Government, in its Roadmap to Renewables report, is targeting 50% of electricity to be sourced from renewable energy by 2030 (Northern Territory Government, 2017). This target is a key element of the Northern Territory Climate Change Response: Towards 2050 (NTG, 2020). In addition, in October 2021, the Northern Territory Government released the Northern Territory Renewable Hydrogen Masterplan (NTG, 2021). This sets out a roadmap for the government to foster development of a renewable hydrogen industry ranging from demonstration-phase projects through to large-scale production for export. 
The Roadmap to Renewables report notes that while the Territory is not well endowed for the pursuit of wind, geothermal, hydro, wave or biofuels power, solar technology including thermal and photovoltaic solar is increasingly cost-competitive (Northern Territory Government, 2017). More specifically, this report concluded: ÔAlthough relatively mature, wind power is likely to be of marginal value due to the relatively low quality of the wind resource in the NT.Õ Figure 14 plots the wind speed at 100 m above ground across Australia and shows that the Territory has a relatively low mean wind speed at 80 m turbine height compared with other states, with wind speeds in the northern third of the state in general below 7 m/s. The Roadmap to Renewables report also discusses the added cost of building wind turbines for cyclonic conditions and how the Territory is relatively unsuited to large-scale development of wind energy, although there may be small facilities towards the centre of Australia where this is viable. It should be noted that since publication of the report further wind data collection and analysis have been conducted: this topic is explored further in the Task 7 report (Green et al., 2024). 
The TerritoryÕs strong solar irradiance, as plotted in Figure 15, supports solar energy being a potential part of future industrial development electricity provision. Solar photovoltaic electricity is already being looked at to replace diesel-powered generation in remote Indigenous communities. This initiative has support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), which has provided 10 MW solar photovoltaic systems across 25 sites, servicing 27 communities (ARENA Australian Government, 2018). Solar photovoltaic electricity generation potential is explored further in the Task 7 report (Green et al., 2024). 

Figure 14: Australian wind resource map 
Source: DNV GL Wind Atlas (2016)

Figure 15: Australian solar irradiance map
Source: Bureau of Meteorology and Australia Government (2020)
While the Roadmap to Renewables report (NTG, 2017) suggests a lack of geothermal energy resources in the Territory, a 2007 report by the Northern Territory Geological Survey found that the fundamental requirements exist for geothermal systems. The areas identified as being prospective and close to existing infrastructure are within the Amadeus, onshore Bonaparte, Money Shoal and Arafura basins (Beardsmore, 2007). Other, underexplored basins are also prospective but further from infrastructure, including the Beetaloo Sub-basin. While many geothermal exploration permits have been issued and further applications are pending over the Beetaloo Sub-basin (see Figure 16), permit operator Steam Resources has indicated the potential could be as much as 84 TJ, which could support the Darwin region (SteamResources, 2024). Appraisal well drilling is currently planned in permit GEP33168, which could prove up this renewable energy source.

Figure 16 Geothermal permits under application by Hydro X Gen 
Source: Steam Resources, 2024
3.2 Manufacturing
Manufacturing accounted for approximately 3.6% of Northern Territory GSP and 2.6% of employment in 2021?22. The manufacturing sector is very diverse and includes food, fabricated metal products, helium, and transport equipment and repair (see Figure 15). The sector employed more than 3,400 people in 2021?22, slightly below the 10-year average of around 3,800.

Figure 15: Northern Territory manufacturing sectors 
Source: NTG (2024g)
The Northern Territory Government promotes manufacturing through its Advanced Manufacturing Ecosystem grant program (Australian Government, 2022). The program provides manufacturers with funding of up to $500,000 to help develop advanced manufacturing capabilities in the Territory. The program aims to assist smaller firms and early-stage research, supporting the move to large-scale commercialisation. The program is focused on commercialising new products and processes, transitioning new products and processes from pilot to commercial operations, and supporting early-stage small-scale and pilot research projects in advanced manufacturing (NTG, 2024g).
The development of a low-emissions hub could potentially assist growth of the manufacturing sector by directly supporting investment in manufacturing of chemical products and aiding manufacturing sustainability through CCUS.
4 Northern Territory historical emissions
In June 2022, Australia lodged an updated Nationally Determined Contribution commitment with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Australia committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. Individual states and territories have also made commitments to reach net zero by 2050 or earlier. The Northern Territory does not have an interim emissions reduction target for 2030 but it does have a target for 50% of electricity consumption to be sourced from renewable energy by 2030. The 2024 Northern Territory Budget committed resources to Ôfacilitate the transition to a 50% renewable energy target by 2030, net zero emissions by 2050, and meet increasing demand for large-scale solar powerÕ (NTG, 2024a). 
Activities in the Northern Territory contributed to 3% of AustraliaÕs total greenhouse emissions in 2022?23 (Figure 17). This is down from 3.5% in 2021?22 due to the decline in Darwin LNG production, pending the life extension of this facility for the processing of Barossa gas.

Figure 17: Australian scope 1 CO2-e emissions by state as a percentage of the total 
Source: Clean Energy Regulator (2023)
Northern Territory CO2-e emissions for the 2022?23 year were reported as 16.7 Mtpa under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reporting guidelines. These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) reported from five sectors: energy; industrial processes and product use; agriculture; land use, land change and forestry; and waste. Under these guidelines the energy sector includes the exploration and exploitation of primary energy sources, the conversion of sources into more useable energy forms in refineries and power plants, the transmission and distribution of fuels and the use of fuels in stationary and mobile applications. The industrial processes and product use sector includes emissions from industrial processes that chemically or physically transform materials (e.g. iron and steel, cement or ammonia manufacture). 
Records of emissions by sector since 1990 (Figure 18) show that although historically the agriculture and land use sectors have dominated, more recently the energy sector has been the dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions. The growth in emissions from this sector corresponds with the commissioning of Darwin LNG in 2006 and Ichthys LNG in 2018.

Figure 18: Northern Territory historical emissions by sector under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change guidelines 
Source: DCCEEW (2024a)
Further inspection of National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme (NGERS) 3 data shows that 9.2 Mtpa of CO2-e was reported for the year 2022?23, of which 7.3 Mtpa was from the safeguard emitters and 1.2 Mtpa CO2-e from Ôdesignated generation facilitiesÕ (Clean Energy Regulator, 2024b). Note that the NGERS reporting scheme explicitly excludes the sector of agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Major point sources of greenhouse emissions in the Northern Territory are from the production of LNG, offshore oil and gas operations, mining, and power stations. Of the NGERS reported emissions sources, CSIRO estimates that of these emissions 82% of emissions are located within 50 km of Darwin Port; 7% are produced from offshore oil and gas operations; and the remaining 11% are located in regional areas Ð principally associated with mining operations and remote power generation (Figure 19).
The concentration of point-source CO2-e emissions around Darwin (Figure 19), a large proportion of which is already captured (see the Task 6 report, Joodi et al. (2024)), the proposed location of the MASDP and any developed portÕs ability to locate infrastructure for the import of international CO2 cargo, makes Darwin an ideal location for the development of a low-emissions CCUS hub. The development of a low-emissions hub in the MASDP ? with the implementation of renewable power, CCUS and new low-emissions industries ? has the potential to contribute to AustraliaÕs target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% or more by 2030 (ARENA Australian Government, 2018).

Figure 19: A map of point-source emissions and the distance of these emissions from existing pipeline and port infrastructure 
Source: Based on NGERS, S&P Global Edin Database, Company Reports

5 Northern Territory projected emissions avoidance and abatement potential
Understanding the potential demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions for industrial and electricity generation sectors in the Northern Territory requires an appreciation of both existing emissions and unconstrained emissions from future industrial development scenarios. For clarity, existing legislation and associated regulations (e.g. the Safeguard Mechanism) rule out unconstrained emissions for new industrial developments, so care is required when reading emissions reduction scenario modelling results in this section as they are explicitly for the purpose of establishing potential demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions.
Once these unavoided and unabated emissions are understood, the demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions can be derived. This potential demand can inform forward strategy and the scale that is required for implementation of these solutions, which includes understanding the demand for CCS.
It is important to note that the results of the emissions reduction scenario modelling below are intended to provide an understanding of possible future outcomes. Industry development will be determined by individual industry proponent investment decisions, government policies and regulations, and the development trajectories of technologies essential to the energy and emissions transition. As such, a series of marginal abatement cost curves has not been developed for different industries ? rather, the focus is on identifying emissions reduction pathways that could technically be implemented that will inform the rest of the study.
In understanding future emissions reduction avoidance and abatement demand from the MASDP, CSIRO has used the Northern Territory Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Logistics (NT-DIPL) possible makeup of future industries from its Balanced Scenario (this scenario uses the widest range of industries that are envisaged to be established in the MASDP). The real industrial mix that will be established in the MASDP may not match the composition used here, but the Balanced Scenario offers a way to align with other modelling and design activities that the Northern Territory Government is pursuing, and therefore this scenario has been chosen for the whole CCUS business case project.
As with all emissions reduction scenario modelling, the results are subject to the input data and assumptions used. Many methods and approaches can be implemented to establish demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions: the authors acknowledge that this is an area of significant debate and that others may come to different conclusions. To this end, wherever possible input data have been identified and the assumptions made have been articulated so that there is clarity on how the results have been derived.
5.1 Method
In determining potential demand for emissions avoidance and abatement solutions, emissions projections have been generated using:
* publicly reported emissions data from current Northern Territory industries and designated generation facilities
* predicted emissions obtained from environmental plans, websites and data services
* new industry projections using data obtained from reports and analogies
* MASDP Balanced Scenario emissions projections.
The point-source emissions data for emitters greater than ~10,000 tpa have been collated with emissions source and geospatial information to enable analysis (see appendix). Figure 20 shows the workflow and data sources used in the emissions models presented below. The analysis excludes LULUCF. Note that for all emissions plots, the data are for the financial year and the period is represented by the later year (e.g. the period 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024 is plotted as 2024).

Figure 20: CSIRO emissions database workflow
5.1.1 Bulk emissions sources
Bulk emissions data for the Northern Territory were gathered from publicly available sources published by both government sources and industry. These included emissions reported under the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme including emissions from power generation facilities (not covered by the Safeguard Mechanism) that are published annually by the Clean Energy Regulator as ÔElectricity sector emissions and generation dataÕ (see emissions reporting thresholds box below for more details). This data was filtered to include emissions sources in the Northern Territory generating over 10,000 tpa. The Utilities Commission provides projected energy supply forecasts for the Northern Territory, which includes the timing of decommissioning various infrastructure components (see appendix).


National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme thresholds
There are 2 types of thresholds that determine which corporations have an obligation under the NGER Act: facility thresholds and corporate group thresholds.
The facility thresholds are:
* 25,000 tonnes or more of carbon dioxide equivalence (CO2-e) (scope 1 and scope 2* emissions)
* production of 100 terajoules (TJ) or more of energy, or
* consumption of 100 TJ or more of energy.
* The corporate group thresholds are:
* 50,000 tonnes or more of CO2-e (scope 1 and scope 2* emissions)
* production of 200 TJ or more of energy, or
* consumption of 200 TJ or more of energy.
If the corporation's group only triggers facility level thresholds, then they only need to report on the individual facilities that reach the facility thresholds.
Once the corporate threshold is reached, they must report on all of the group's facilities, regardless of whether individual facilities reach facility thresholds.
The Safeguard Mechanism applies to facilities that emit more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2-e covered emissions a year.
*scope 2 emissions must be calculated using a location-based scope 2 emissions method (Method A1 or A2 from Chapter 7 of the NGER Measurement Determination). (Clean energy regulator, 2024a)
5.1.2 EmittersÕ public reports
Emitters are required to submit analysis of future developments and their emissions in their environmental approval applications. Additionally, emitters publish further information regarding the timing of developments and/or decommissioning in their corporate reports such as annual reports and sustainability/climate reports and press releases. Note that the level of detail and quantity of data available varies by emitter (see appendix). From these sources, an understanding of the current emissions reported (e.g. NGERS) versus the predicted values (within environmental management plans) can be established. Typically, the environmental management plans also have greater granularity on the sources of emissions within the facilities, which allows an understanding of the relative proportion of emissions associated with different processes.
5.1.3 Benchmark breakdown to category
By combining the data from current emissions and corporate reports/approvals documents, the emissions data have been sub-categorised by emissions source, such as Ôcombined cycle gas turbineÕ or ÔprocessÕ. Where data are absent from prior reporting, bench-marked emissions are assumed for different processes (e.g. open cycle gas turbine CO2-e emissions per MW generation) using open source and literature benchmarks. Where new industries are contemplated, potential emissions and magnitude data have been provided by the NT-DIPL (GHG Wood Group, 2022). The total size of the emissions from each of these industries and the method for deriving them are taken Ôas isÕ ? the only additional analysis undertaken by CSIRO has been, when required, to derive greater granularity in the type of emission through benchmarking, as described above.
5.1.4 Forward projections
Using the data derived from prior analysis for current and new industry emissions, projections for existing assets derived from corporate data and available information has enabled a projection of emissions over the study period (to 2050). For new industries, development timeline scenarios have been applied for when those industries will come into operation (see Figure 22).
5.1.5 Emissions forecasts
By combining the above categories of emissions, a point-source emissions database has been established that can be filtered by location and emissions source type. This enables analysis of scenarios to explore the impact of applying potential avoidance and abatement technologies on emissions (noting the previous qualification statements at the start of this section).
The emissions forecasts do not include individual industry proponent emissions reduction strategies. The purpose, as described above, is to provide an understanding of the quantum of requirement for avoidance and abatement technologies and survey possible future emissions reduction outcomes through their use. Offsets have not been considered for any of the scenarios explored; it is assumed that residual emissions could be managed through offsets, but this topic is outside the scope of the current report.
5.2 Scenarios
To assess the potential avoidance and abatement requirements for future Northern Territory emissions, the following cases have been developed:
1. Base Scenario (described in section 5.2.1)
2. Reference Scenario (described in section 5.2.2).
The emissions data for each scenario are presented by emissions type rather than by industry, as the latter does not inform the ability to avoid or abate. The only exception is for offshore emissions associated with offshore natural gas production, where it is assumed that these emissions will be much more difficult to avoid and abate and where they constitute several sources of emissions (e.g. gas turbine operations, flaring and fugitive emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases).
The point-source emissions considered in the analysis are:
* acid gas removal unit (AGRU) emissions Ð emissions generated from the separation of CO2 from natural gas and other products (e.g. methane-derived hydrogen)
* turbines Ð open and combined cycle gas turbines
* reciprocating engines Ð stationary reciprocating engines for the purpose of electricity generation
* industrial process flaring Ð emissions generated during the burning of waste flammable products during operations
* furnaces and boilers Ð emissions generated by furnace and boiler operations
* production emissions Ð process emissions not included in the categories above, including fugitive emissions of methane and CO2.
Note that only industry and electricity generation emissions are considered. 
5.2.1 Base Scenario
The Base Scenario is anchored on current industrial (principally energy and mining) and electricity generation activities to end of life for these facilities. It assumes that no new industrial and electricity generation projects are developed in the Northern Territory outside the projects for which final investment decisions have already been taken (e.g. the Barossa gas field developed via the Darwin LNG ? even though this gas field has taken final investment decision and will require CCS to manage its reservoir CO2. Bayu-Undan CCS is targeting FID in 2025, therefore, it has not been included as it will be applied in the avoidance and abatement options below). In the Base Scenario, the MASDP is not developed. 
Base Scenario emissions without the implementation of avoidance and abatement technologies are shown in Figure 21, which charts an emissions period from 2006 to 2050. Emissions data breakdown for the 2006 to 2022?23 period is based on NGERS datasets through to the 2022?23 reporting year, using the workflow described above; and the years 2023?24 to 2050 are based on forward projections. The data show the growth in emissions associated with development of the Ichthys LNG facility, subsequent declines in emissions associated with reduced natural gas production from Bayu-Undan and electricity generation, followed by increased emissions associated with greater natural gas production from new reservoirs and fields. The decline in emissions over time represents the decline in operational facilities and in the natural gas reserves. The maximum modelled emissions through the whole period are 13.9 Mtpa CO2-e in 2035, with the largest contributors to point-source emissions throughout being that generated from AGRU and turbines.

Figure 21: Emissions outlook with no avoidance or abatement Ð Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.2.2 Reference Scenario
The Reference Scenario assumes development of the Balanced Scenario industries and includes natural gas developments in the Beetaloo Basin (onshore) and Verus Field (offshore), Bonaparte CCS developments, as well as the Barossa and Caldita gas field and Bayu-Undan CCS developments. The Reference Scenario industrial development is based on the timeline presented in Figure 22. The development timeline is one possible development outcome and will be subject to change if the industries are established.

Figure 22: Reference Scenario industrial development timeline 
Source: NT-DIPL
Reference Scenario emissions without the implementation of avoidance and abatement technologies are shown in Figure 23. As with the Base Scenario, the chart shows emissions over the period from 2006 to 2050. Emissions data breakdown for the 2006 to 2022?23 period is based on NGERS datasets through to the 2022?23 reporting year and using the workflow described above; and the years 2023?24 to 2050 are based on forward projections. 
In the Reference Scenario, unavoided and unabated emissions reach a peak of 35.5 Mtpa by 2037, before natural decline in the major gas fields sees emissions fall to ~24.2 Mtpa by 2050. For clarity, CCS is not included in this unavoided and unabated Reference Scenario. 

Figure 23: Emissions outlook with no avoidance or abatement Ð Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.3 Avoidance and abatement options
Avoidance and abatement of Northern Territory emissions will be undertaken by a combination of methods including renewable electrification, hydrogen fuel substitution and CCS. 
In the emissions avoidance and abatement models developed below the following assumptions were used in addressing each emissions category: 
* For AGRU emissions, only CCS (carbon storage) was determined as a suitable abatement technology. 
* For gas turbine emissions, appropriate technologies for emissions reduction were determined to be renewable electrification, hydrogen fuel substitution and CO2 capture. The exception to this assumption was for gas turbines situated in remote areas away from Darwin, such as mine sites and remote communities. In these cases, only renewable electrification was determined to be a realistic pathway to emissions reduction. 
* For reciprocating engine emissions, only renewable electrification was considered as a realistic pathway to emissions reduction. 
* Industrial process flaring was assumed not to be addressable through electrification, hydrogen fuel substitution or CCS. This is considered to be a conservative assumption, as industries seek to minimise flaring operations. 
* For furnaces and boilers, assumed pathways to reduce emissions were fuel substitution using hydrogen and/or capture of CO2 emissions. 
* Production emissions were determined to be suitable for CO2 capture only within the Middle Arm, while other process emissions generated remotely were determined not to be suitable for avoidance and abatement. This is a conservative assumption as it would be expected that individual industries and sites would work towards reduction of these emissions. 
Other emissions reduction drivers that are not considered in this report include the impact of increased efficiency, which is discussed separately in the Task 5 report (Czapla et al., 2024).
To assist in understanding the viability of deploying renewable electrification, clean hydrogen generation and CCS, Figure 24 shows the current operating and proposed locations of renewable electricity and clean hydrogen generation and CO2 storage onshore and in adjacent offshore areas. 
The following sections briefly review these projects and the potential impacts on unavoided and unabated emissions through the deployment of these emission reduction technologies. 

Figure 24: A map of hydrogen, CCS and renewable power stations 
Source: Geoscience Australia and NGERS data, CSIRO (2024f), Global CCS Institute (2024)

5.3.1 Renewable electrification 
With the Northern Territory GovernmentÕs target of having 50% of electricity consumption sourced from renewable energy by 2030, the transition from hydrocarbon electricity generation to photovoltaic solar, wind and potentially geothermal electricity generation will need to be accelerated. Only a small area of the Territory is serviced via interconnected grids, the Darwin Katherine Electricity System (DKES) and the Alice Springs grid. The remainder is supplied with more localised power generation, with 69 designated generation facilities reporting emissions in 2022?23 (see the Task 7 report, Green et al. (2024)). As presented in section 3.1, renewable electricity generation that is installed and planned in the Territory is predominately solar.
Table 1 details the major renewable power generation facilities that are currently operating in the Northern Territory; Table 2 details the renewable power generation facilities that are installed but not operating; and Table 3 details the renewable power generation projects proposed to be installed and connected to the grid (NTG, 2024c).
The renewable electricity generation potential and the pursuit of renewable electricity generation projects in the Northern Territory, if realised, will help enable the Territory to achieve its renewable electricity targets for regulated networks and potentially provide electricity to the Middle Arm industries.
Table 1: Northern Territory current renewable power generation facilities
Facility name
Fuel
Company
MW
Darwin Renewable Energy Facility
Landfill gas
LMS Energy Pty Ltd

Nauiyu Nauiyu (Daly River)**
Solar
Power and Water Corp

Kings Canyon (12 MW)**
Solar
Power Generation Corp
12
Lake Nash (15 MW)**
Wind
Power and Water Corp
15
Katherine ***
(dispatching since Sep 2023)
Solar
Eni
25
RAAF Darwin
(since Dec 2023)
Solar
Defence
3.2
Robertson Barracks 
(since July 2024)
Solar
Defence
10
Bachelor***
Solar
Eni
10
Batchelor 2
Solar
Merricks Capital
10
*Data from 2021 NGERS reporting.
**Not connected or likely to be connected to DKES.
***Dispatched at reduced capacity and under temporary regime

Table 2: Northern Territory installed but not operational large-scale renewable power generation facilities
Facility name
Fuel
Company
MW
Manton Dam
Solar
Eni
10
Table 3: Northern Territory proposed renewable power generation projects
Facility name
Fuel
Company
MW
SunCable (RFSU 2030, DKES)^
Solar/Wind
Cannon-BrookesÕ Grok Ventures
900
Larrakia* 
Solar
Larrakia Energy
300
Darwin Renewable Energy Hub (Proposed)
Solar
TBA
180Ð230
Berry Springs ^^
Solar
Livingstone Solar
~40
^SunCable Project (SunCable, 2023).
^^ Livingstone Solar (NT Solar, 2023); current announcements on these projects do not include connection to the DKES.
RFSU Ð ready for startup.
In the assessment of the potential impact of renewable electrification on both the Base and Reference scenarios, renewable electrification was applied to 50% of those emissions identified as avoidable through renewable electrification (see explanation of assumptions above) from 2030 to 2035. From 2035 onwards, it was assumed that 75% of identified emissions would be electrified using renewable electricity.
Base Scenario: renewable electrification
Figure 25 shows the impact of renewable electrification on the Base Scenario. In this scenario, up to 3.7 Mtpa CO2-e emissions could be avoided in 2035. Critical to this scenario is when renewable electricity is available, and to what degree, to displace gas-fired generators on the Darwin Katherine Electricity System, in remote communities and in mine sites. As the Darwin and Ichthys LNG projects have significant gas turbine use, the provision of cost-competitive firmed renewable electricity (likely through an industrial transmission network; see the Task 7 report, Green et al. (2024)) to the Middle Arm is critical to realisation of these emissions reductions.

Figure 25: Emissions outlook with renewable electrification Ð Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
Reference Scenario: renewable electrification 
For the Reference Scenario (Figure 26), the gross impact of renewable electrification is larger (maximum of 6.5 Mtpa CO2-e in 2037) but the emissions reductions only reduce total projected emissions by a maximum of ~6 Mtpa CO2-e over the study period. As with the Base Scenario, the date that renewable electricity becomes available and to what degree it can displace gas turbine use are critical to emissions avoidance. In this scenario, the importance of access to firmed affordable renewable electricity in the Middle Arm is greatly enhanced by the development of new industries in this location. 

Figure 26: Emissions outlook with renewable electrification Ð Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.3.2 Hydrogen fuel substitution
Hydrogen is a potential substitute for hydrocarbon-based fuels as it produces only water when combusted. Current natural gas infrastructure (turbines and compressors) can use ~10% hydrogen blend (by energy) without any upgrade requirements to account for the higher burn temperature of hydrogen and potential nitrogen oxides. For the same thermal power, the required volumetric flow rate of hydrogen is two to three times that of natural gas. The Northern Territory Government Renewable Hydrogen Master Plan reports that hydrogen blending in new technology will be up to 75% (NTG, 2021). 
Given that the four largest sources of emissions in the Northern Territory are from gas turbines for electricity generation and compression, there remains the potential for fuel substitution, notwithstanding the governmentÕs stated objective of 50% renewable electricity generation in regulated networks by 2030.
With the support of the Northern Territory Government, several hydrogen and renewable energy projects are currently under assessment (see Figure 24) that may supply hydrogen to support abatement. Table 4 outlines the hydrogen projects currently under assessment, with two significant facilities located in the MASDP or nearby.



Table 4: Northern Territory proposed hydrogen projects 
Source: CSIRO (2024f)
Project 
(owner)
Product
Status
Size
Reference
Allied Green Ammonia
Ammonia/hydrogen derivatives Ð export focus
FEED commenced mid-2024
950,000 tpa
 (CSIRO, 2024a)
Darwin Green Liquid Hydrogen Export Project and Hydrogen Hub Development (Lattice Technology)
Liquid hydrogen Ð export focus to Japan by 2030
Commercial demonstration
21,000 tpa
 (CSIRO, 2024c)
Darwin H2 Hub (Total Eren)
Green hydrogen
Major project status awarded early 2024
80,000 tpa
 (CSIRO, 2024d)
Green Springs
(Climate Impact Capital)
Ammonia/hydrogen derivatives
Hydrogen module Ð FEED, project pre-FEED
500,000 tpa (max)
 (CSIRO, 2024e)
Tiwi H2 (Provaris Energy)
Compressed hydrogen
Export potential
FEED (FID late 2024/early 2025)
Initially 50,000 tpa
Peak 90,000 tpa
 (CSIRO, 2024g)
In the assessment of the potential impact of the use of hydrogen on both Base and Reference scenario emissions, 25% of identified emissions that can be addressed using hydrogen are removed between 2030 and 2040. This principally reflects the blending of natural gas and hydrogen in gas turbines. A further 50% of these emissions will be addressed using hydrogen from 2040 onwards as the costs of hydrogen production decline (noting that the proportion of hydrogen blending does not have a one-to-one relationship with emissions).
Base Scenario: hydrogen abatement
In the Base Scenario, up to 2 Mtpa CO2-e emissions are removed using hydrogen in 2040. It is important to note that in this scenario no hydrogen is generated through thermochemical reduction of methane coupled to CCS, currently the lowest cost production pathway to hydrogen generation (DCCEEW, 2024b; IRENA, 2022). As such, the ability to accelerate hydrogen deployment, in both time and magnitude, may be limited. Total emissions reduction under this model peaks in 2029 and then slowly declines as gas production declines, falling to just over 3 Mtpa CO2-e in 2050 (Figure 27).

Figure 27: Emissions outlook with hydrogen abatement Ð Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
Reference Scenario: hydrogen abatement
In the Reference Scenario, the amount of emissions unable to be abated using hydrogen increases from 20 to 30 Mtpa CO2-e over the 10-year period 2030 to 2040 as additional Balanced Scenario facilities start up at the MASDP. This then drops back to 20 Mtpa CO2-e in 2050 due to declining gas production (Figure 28). Total emissions reduction using hydrogen reaches a maximum of nearly 5 Mtpa CO2-e in 2040. Methane-derived hydrogen generation is initiated in 2032 so there is scope for additional hydrogen use to increase the percentage share of abatable emissions earlier than 2040 if suitable infrastructure is available.

Figure 28: Emissions outlook with hydrogen abatement Ð Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.3.3 Carbon capture and storage
Two offshore CCS areas are being actively studied in the vicinity of Darwin:
* to the north of Darwin, the Bayu-Undan field is to be transitioned from producing hydrocarbons to storing CO2 
* to the west of Darwin, two greenhouse gas permits have been awarded for assessment in the Northern Territory and Western Australia sectors of the Petrel Sub-basin of the Bonaparte Basin. 
The CCS projects being actively progressed and their potential to abate emissions are briefly discussed in the following sections.
Bayu-Undan CCS project
The Bayu-Undan gas field in the Timor Sea (in the jurisdiction of Timor-Leste) has been in production since 2004 and is nearing end of field life. The Bayu-Undan CCS project entered the front-end engineering design (FEED) phase in the second quarter of 2022 to use the depleted gas reservoir for CO2 storage. The project is designed around reuse of existing infrastructure such as the export pipeline, offshore platform and wells but will need additional facilities for CO2 capture and compression. The subsurface is well understood: the reservoir is a structural trap with an extensive aquifer for pressure sink. With high permeability and historical gas injection proving injectivity, it is expected to store up to 10 Mtpa of CO2 for more than 20 years.
Initially ~2.3 Mtpa of CO2 will be injected from the Barossa Field. The operator, Santos, announced on 3 May 2023 that four non-binding memoranda of understanding have been signed for proposed storage of CO2 emissions by third parties at Bayu-Undan (Santos, 2023). These agreements are with potential upstream gas and LNG projects offshore of the Northern Territory and Darwin and an energy and industrial conglomerate in Korea. While the parties have not been named, should all four memoranda be converted to binding agreements they indicate that demand for storage at Bayu-Undan will be in excess of 10 Mtpa (Santos, 2023).
The schematic in Figure 29 illustrates the proposed Bayu-Undan CCS project (Santos, 2022; Wilson, 2022).

Figure 29: Bayu-Undan CCS project
Source: Santos (2022)
Petrel Sub-basin
Two greenhouse gas storage permits have been issued in the Petrel Sub-basin (see Figure 30; DISR (2021). Following many years of studies, Geoscience Australia reported capacity of 15.9 Gt (300 tcf) in two saline reservoir-seal pairs in the eastern Petrel Sub-basin (Consoli et al., 2014). The Northern Territory Government currently reports the potential capacity of the basin to be in excess of 20 Mtpa with an effective storage capacity of 6.48 Gt (NTG, 2024b). 
Figure 31 shows the locations within the permits mapped as suitable by Geoscience Australia. Investigations by Shell, Eni and CSIRO, supported by funding from the Australian Government and reported by Johnstone and Stalker (2022), have provided further geological appraisal and derisking for CO2 storage in the eastern part of the Petrel Sub-basin.

Figure 30: 2021 greenhouse gas permits acreage release, Petrel Sub-basin
Source: Geoscience Australia (2021)

Figure 31: CCS suitable locations determined by Geoscience Australia for the eastern Petrel Sub-basin 
Source: Consoli et al. (2014)

A geological storage exploration and appraisal work program in the Petrel Sub?basin is underway to assess the viability of this highly prospective storage resource. INPEX, operator of the Bonaparte CCS project (Permit G-7-AP mapped as GHG21-1 in Figure 30), is currently drilling two wells in the permit and plans to inject into the Plover saline aquifer at a depth of ~2000 m. The project proposes to start injecting CO2 at a rate of 2 Mtpa from the Ichthys onshore processing facility, with potential expansion to 7 Mpta. In the western sector of the basin a second permit, G-11-AP (formerly GHG21-2), was awarded in 2022 to a joint venture operated by Santos.
In the assessment of the potential impact of CCS on both Base and Reference scenario emissions, 5 Mtpa CO2-e emissions reduction through CO2 storage is made available in 2026. For the Reference Scenario this capacity is augmented by an additional 10 Mtpa CO2 in 2030 and a further 10 Mtpa CO2 in 2040 (totalling 25 Mtpa CO2 storage capacity, as per the Task 0 report, Ross et al. (2023b)). For emissions that can be abated using CO2 storage and/or CCS, AGRU emissions are prioritised for storage (as CO2 is already captured), with only a maximum of 85% of other emissions being permitted to be captured and stored in any residual capacity after 2026. This is reflective of a conservative capture efficiency. The constraint of a 5 Mtpa CO2 storage capacity by 2026 is to provide a conservative initiation of the CO2 storage rate. However, as detailed above, the Bayu-Undan project may have greater initial capacity available prior to 2030.
Base Scenario: CCS abatement
In the Base Scenario, AGRU emissions are almost entirely stored within the available CO2 storage capacity after 2026. The 5 Mtpa storage capacity is fully used by AGRU emissions until 2041, when capacity becomes available for other emission types. However, due to falling gas production it is debatable whether additional infrastructure investments would be made for the capture of emissions from gas turbines, which make up the majority of other emissions that could be included in CCS totals. Unabated emissions remain at a plateau of ~8?9 Mtpa CO2-e until declining production from natural gas fields results in emissions falling to below 2 Mtpa CO2-e by 2050 (Figure 32).


Figure 32: Emissions outlook with CCS abatement Ð Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
Reference Scenario: CCS abatement
In the Reference Scenario, including the impact of CCS ramping from 5 Mtpa in 2026 to 15 Mtpa in 2030 and 25 Mtpa in 2040, net emissions rise to around 10?20 Mtpa CO2-e in the late 2030s, before falling to ~10 Mtpa by 2040 when the third CCUS project starts up and to ~6.7 Mtpa by 2050 as production starts to decline in the major gas fields (Figure 33). In this model nearly all AGRU emissions are abated from 2026 to 2050, with additional furnace, gas turbine and production emissions captured and stored. Unused storage capacity grows from 2040 to 2050, potentially representing an opportunity for importation of CO2 for storage.

Figure 33: Emissions outlook with CCS abatement Ð Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.3.4 Combined abatement potential
The sections above for the Base and Reference scenarios illustrate the potential individual contributions of renewable electrification, hydrogen and CCUS but clearly show that no single emissions reduction technology can achieve rapid decarbonisation of point-source emissions in the Northern Territory. A combination of emissions reduction approaches is therefore required. The ultimate mix of approaches will be determined by a combination of technical and economic feasibility and stakeholder buy-in. Additional studies and technological development are required before a preferred abatement path to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 can be determined for the Northern Territory economy.
For the Base and Reference scenarios, avoidance and abatement technologies have been combined to show the total impact on emissions reduction. In this model emissions reduction technologies are applied in stages, beginning with electrification, followed by hydrogen fuel substitution before finally CCUS is applied to the residual emissions. For each category, the same model constraints are applied as described above.
Base Scenario: combined avoidance and abatement
For the Base Scenario, the combination of avoidance and abatement emissions reduction technologies leads to a decreasing emissions trajectory through to 2050, when residual emissions comprise less than 1 Mtpa CO2-e, almost exclusively associated with offshore gas production (Figure 34).
For this model all 5 Mtpa of available CO2 storage is used through to 2043, after which there is a strong decline in the of volumes of CO2 for storage and demand for emissions reduction from the use of renewable energy and hydrogen declines due to falling natural gas production.

Figure 34: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð Base Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
Reference Scenario: combined avoidance and abatement
For the Reference Scenario combined avoidance and abatement model, net emissions are dramatically reduced, after peaking at 12.9 Mtpa CO2-e in 2037. Between 2024 and 2050 (apart from the years 2036?38), point-source emissions are below 10 Mtpa CO2-e with emissions steadily declining to just over 5 Mtpa CO2-e from 2038 to 2050 (Figure 35). The uplift in emissions in 2036?38 could, in principle, be mitigated through either delayed industrial development or earlier development of the CCS capacity. The residual emissions in 2050 comprise process and offshore emissions. In this model, CO2 storage capacity is fully used through to 2040 and after this period significant residual CO2 capacity is available.


Figure 35: Emissions outlook with all abatement options Ð Reference Scenario 
Source: see Appendix
5.3.5 Residual emissions in modelled scenarios
The Base and Reference scenarios illustrate the potential contribution of renewable electrification, hydrogen and CCUS to the Northern TerritoryÕs objectives of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Some industrial point-source emissions may not be easily or economically captured, and under both scenarios there are residual net emissions of around 1?5 Mtpa CO2-e in 2050.
These emissions fall into offshore emissions and production emissions. Offshore emissions are some of the hardest point-source emissions to abate, with limited space on offshore facilities and the high cost of offshore development limiting the suitability of CCUS as an abatement solution for offshore facility processes. While offshore gas turbines could conceivably be converted to run on hydrogen, the ability to supply and store hydrogen offshore to support such an abatement approach will be difficult. One growing approach to reducing offshore emissions is direct electrification of platforms and floating facilities, either using renewable power generated close to the facilities themselves (e.g. wind, wave or tidal) or through low-emissions-intensity electricity grid connections (e.g. as commonplace in Norway) (Oliveira-Pinto et al., 2019). A potential, although unconventional, approach could be to harness the geothermal heat produced from gas production for electricity generation (e.g. Rankin cycle). The degree to which these offshore emissions can be reduced will depend on the suitability, cost and technical maturity of the technologies.
The other key residual emission is from production emissions at remote mine sites and onshore gas operations. It is likely that to gain development approvals, proponents of future resource projects will need to demonstrate that they have sought to mitigate as far as possible future process emissions using avoidance and abatement technologies. It is therefore likely that the residual emissions estimates from the combined models presented above represent a conservative outcome. In the eventuality that these emissions cannot be avoided or abated, direct air capture could also be considered or offsets could be sought to obtain net zero point-source CO2-e emissions for the Northern Territory.
It should be reiterated that in the two scenarios explored, and the subsequent emissions models developed, analysis has specifically excluded consideration of the costs of emissions reduction (this is addressed in other tasks in the CCUS business case project). The purpose of the analysis here is to explore the demand for emissions avoidance or abatement methods that could be required over the next decades based on the Base and Reference scenarios.
Future emissions and emissions avoidance and abatement approaches will be based on the financial viability of future industries, government policies, legislation and regulations, the avoidance and abatement technologies employed, the efficiencies they can obtain, access to these technologies and their cost.
6 Conclusions
This report has reviewed the current state of the Northern Territory economy, its historical performance, the influence of key industrial sectors in the economy, historical emissions, and possible future avoidance and abatement scenarios through to 2050. The report has also provided framing for the rest of the task reports associated with the CCUS business case project. 
The report has shown that the Northern Territory is a small open economy strategically located on the doorstep of Asia. The economy is dominated by government investment and private sector investment in the mining and energy sector, the latter driving much of the growth over the last two decades.
The Northern Territory GovernmentÕs growth aspiration to reach a $40 billion economy by 2030 requires compound annual growth of 5.6%, significantly above the recent average growth of 3.7% per year. To do this, the Northern Territory needs to realise growth in existing industrial sectors, develop new sectors and secure new markets. This will occur against a backdrop of increasing regional tensions and the need to reduce emissions to achieve net zero by 2050.
Much of the emphasis on Northern Territory economic growth has been placed on the development of new industries associated with the MASDP. However, as shown by the emissions scenarios and models developed here, the Northern Territory will require emissions avoidance and abatement technologies (renewable electrification, hydrogen and CCUS) to be deployed at scale. To this end, there are already globally significant projects being considered in the Territory that could provide the pathway for deep emissions reduction of existing and future industries.
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Appendix
Scenarios emissions data sources 
Data used for the NT Base and NT Reference Scenarios emissions compiled by CSIRO have been sourced from the following references:
Arafura Resources Limited (2022a) Nolans Rare Earths Mine Management Plan. <https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1170383/mine-management-plan.pdf>.
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Arafura Resources Limited (2023) Arafura Sustainability Report FY23. <www.arultd.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/231122-Arafura-Rare-Earths-FY23-Sustainability-Report_reduced.pdf>.
BE Power (nd) NT Solar & Gas Co-Generation Project. <https://bepower.com.au/projects/solar-gas-co-generation/>.
BE Power (2022) MC Power Northern Territory Power Projects. <https://bepower.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MC-Power-NT-Project-Synopsis.pdf>.
Clarke Energy (2016) Clarke Energy to Upgrade Territory GenerationÕs Tennant Creek Power Station. <https://www.clarke-energy.com/2016/territory-generation-tennant-creek-power-station/>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2011) NGER Register Report Combined Polluters [Dataset]. <https://barnabyisright.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/nger_register_report_combined_polluters.xls>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2012?13) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2012?13 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3818>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2013?14) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2013?14 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3817>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2014?15) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2014?15 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3820>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2015?16) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2015?16 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3823>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2016?17a) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2016?17 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3821>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2016Ð17b) Safeguard facility reported emissions 2016Ð17 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/markets/reports-and-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-2016-17>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2017?18a) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2017?18 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3824>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2017Ð18b) Safeguard facility reported emissions 2017Ð18 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/markets/reports-and-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-2017-18>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2018?19a) Greenhouse and energy information for designated generation facilities 2018?19 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/markets/reports-and-data/nger-reporting-data-and-registers/electricity-sector-emissions-and-generation-data-2018-19>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2018Ð19b) Safeguard facility reported emissions 2018Ð19 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/markets/reports-and-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-2018-19>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2019?20a) Greenhouse and energy information by designated generation facility 2019?20 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/node/3828>.
Clean Energy Regulator, Commonwealth of Australia (2019Ð20b) Safeguard facility reported emissions 2019Ð20 [Dataset]. <https://cer.gov.au/markets/reports-and-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-data/safeguard-facility-reported-emissions-2019-20>.
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ERA (2014) Air Quality Control Management Plan. Ranger Mining Management Plan, Appendix D.1: AMP001 Air quality protection management plan. Revision number 1.14.0. Energy Resources of Australia. <https://www.energyres.com.au/>.
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ERA (2019) Ranger Mining Management Plan. Energy Resources of Australia. <https://industry.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/936471/ranger-management-plan-pln005.pdf>.
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GISERA (2022) Mitigation and Offsets of Australian Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Onshore Shale Gas in the Northern Territory. <https://gisera.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GISERA_G7_Final_report_final-20230207.pdf>.
GlobalData PLC (2016) Bayu-Undan, Timor Sea. <https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/bayu-undan/?cf-view>.
Guardian News & Media Limited (nd) Rio Tinto gets $2m from emissions reduction fund to switch to diesel. <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/26/rio-tinto-gets-2m-from-emissions-reduction-fund-to-switch-to-diesel>.
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Mining Magazine (2019) Zenith close to finishing Tanami power plant. <https://www.miningmagazine.com/power-remote-power/news/1357164/zenith-close-to-finishing-tanami-power-plant>.
Newmont Asia Pacific (2013) Beyond the Mine. <https://s24.q4cdn.com/382246808/files/document_library/Australia-Pacific-Newmont_Beyond-the-mine-2013_FINAL.pdf>.
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Newmont Asia Pacific (2018) Tanami Operations, Northern Territory. <https://minedocs.com/20/Tanami-TR-12312018.pdf>.
Newmont Asia Pacific (2020) Climate Strategy Report. <https://s24.q4cdn.com/382246808/files/doc_downloads/sustainability/2020-report/Newmont-Climate-Strategy-Report.pdf>.
NOPSEMA (2021) Ichthys Project Offshore Facility (Operation) Environment Plan. National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority. <https://docs.nopsema.gov.au/A800340>.
NOPSEMA (2022) Ichthys Project Offshore Facility (Operation) Environment Plan. National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority. <https://docs.nopsema.gov.au/A826886>.
Northern Territory Government (2024a) Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct. <https://middlearmprecinct.nt.gov.au/Industries>.
Northern Territory Government (2024b) The Northern Territory has a strong pipeline of developing mining projects. <https://resourcingtheterritory.nt.gov.au/minerals/mines-and-projects/developing-projects>.
NT EPA (2006) McArthur River Mine Open Cut Project Ð Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/288191/Section208.pdf>.
NT EPA (2012a) McArthur River Mine Phase 3 Development Project Ð Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/287789/Chapter-11-Air-Quality-and-Greenhouse-Gases.pdf>.
NT EPA (2012b) Report: Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Assessment for the McArthur River Mine Phase 3 Development Project. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/287809/Appendix-D5-Air-Quality-and-Greenhouse-Gas-Technical-Report-Part-A.pdf>.
NT EPA (2017?22) Environmental Protection Licence EPL228-04. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/>.
NT EPA (2017) McArthur River Mine Overburden Management Project: Appendix AA Air Quality Impact Assessment Report Ð Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/407564/mrm_overburden_draft_eis_appendixAA_air_quality_impact_assessment_report.pdf>.
NT EPA (2019) Darwin Processing Facility Greenhouse Gas and Climate Change Impact Assessment: AppendixÊVÊTechnical Report for GHG Emissions Inventory. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/761498/draft_eis_darwin_processing_facility_appendixV_technical_report_greenhouse_gas_climate_change_impact_assessment.pdf>.
NT EPA (2018) McArthur River Mine Overburden Management Project. Air Quality Ð Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/407374/mrm_overburden_draft_eis_ch13_air_quality.pdf>.
NT EPA (2021) Discussion Paper: Greenhouse Gas Emissions ? Management Plan and Offsets. Northern Territory Environment Protection Authority. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/986462/Appendix-I-Greenhouse-Gas-Discussion-Paper-Complete.pdf>.
Pacific Energy (2016) Annual Report. http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/asxdata/20161024/pdf/01792951.pdf>.
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Phillips Petroleum (2002) Darwin 10 MTPA LNG Facility Public Environmental Report. <https://www.santos.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/DLNG-Public-Environmental-Report.pdf>.
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Primary Gold (2022) Rustlers Roost and Quest 29 Open-Cut Mine Redevelopment. <https://ntepa.nt.gov.au/your-business/public-registers/environmental-impact-assessments-register/completed-assessments/register/rustlers-roost-and-quest-29-open-cut-mine-redevelopment>.
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1 Note that the numbers reported by the ABS vary from the numbers compiled by the Northern Territory Government (2024d). 
2 Overseas travel is a service import and recorded as a debit in the trade balance in the current account.
3 Under the NGERS safeguard facilities (emitters with over 100,000 tons per annum CO2-e) and electricity generation facilities are required to report their CO2-e emissions. 
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