The challenge
Informing a proactive approach to drought
It’s not always clear when a drought starts or ends, and current drought responses in affected areas tend to be reactive.
Drought impacts are felt acutely when water becomes scarce and agricultural yields drop.
Climate forecast information is not enough to predict drought impacts. In addition, forecast information for agricultural production and farm profit could be used proactively to understand potential drought impacts.
Our response
Indicators for drought impacts
We’re developing a set of national indicators for measuring and forecasting the extent and severity of drought impacts in the Australian agricultural sector. We're linking Bureau of Meteorology weather data and forecasts to crop, pasture and farm profit models to predict farm business outcomes.
The Australian Agriculture Drought Indicators (AADI) project is being developed in partnership with the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund.
Our progress: a prototype featuring monthly forecasts
We have developed a prototype in which forecasts for the coming 12 months are updated monthly for the entire Australian agricultural zone on a 5kmx5km grid.
We are investigating sources of socio-economic data that may be useful in providing complementary indicators on drought effects on communities beyond the farm gate. Stakeholder user testing is informing the product's development.
The project will develop a set of national indicators for measuring and forecasting the extent and severity of drought impacts in the Australian agricultural sector.
The results
Informing the nation's response
AADI would help inform the nation’s response to developing dry conditions.
It would enable the agriculture sector to anticipate and prepare for drought, by providing valuable insights on impacts to agricultural production (e.g. crop yields, pasture growth) and farming profits relative to previous years.
The financial and insurance sectors would also benefit from insights into industry exposure to drought and climate risk, and potentially support new insurance products.