Global Carbon Budget

Global carbon dioxide emissions

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget (2024), the total global fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2024 increased by 0.8 per cent, hitting a record 37.4 billion tonnes.

Fossil fuel CO₂ includes emissions from the combustion and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and cement production. These emissions account for about 90 per cent of all CO₂ emissions from human activities.

Emissions from all fossil sources increased in 2024 compared to 2023. Coal accounted for 41 per cent of global CO₂ emissions (up 0.2 per cent), oil accounted for 32 per cent (up 0.9 per cent), and natural gas accounted for 21 per cent (up 2.4 per cent).

While fossil fuel CO₂ emissions continue to increase, the average trend in CO₂ emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, have declined. This means that the trend  in total emissions from both fossil fuels and natural sources have stabilised over the last decade.

Even with an overall stable trend, total CO₂ emissions are projected to increase to 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. This is due to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems (due to fires and drought in the Amazon and boreal forests during the first part of the year), and a continued increase in human-induced emissions.

Changes in global fossil CO₂ emissions

Although global emissions have increased, the picture for the top emitting countries varies.

China’s emissions (32 per cent of the global total) increased by 0.2 per cent, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.

The United States’ emissions (13 per cent of global) were down by 0.6 per cent. The rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants drove most of this decline. US coal emissions are the lowest since 1903.

India’s emissions (8 per cent of global) increased by 4.6 per cent. India is the world’s third-largest fossil CO₂ emitter.

European Union emissions (7 per cent of global) are down by 3.8 per cent. This decline was due to strong growth in renewables driving emissions down, in the presence of weak economic growth and high energy prices.

Emissions in the rest of the world (38 per cent of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1 per cent.

During 2014-2023, 22 countries had declining fossil fuel CO₂ emission trends, representing 23 per cent of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, while their economies continued to grow. The list includes France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Portugal, Romania, South Africa, the United Kingdom and USA.

Besides the natural CO₂ sinks, humans are also removing CO₂ from the atmosphere through deliberate activities. We estimate permanent reforestation and afforestation over the past decade have removed about 1.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. This offset around half of the emissions from permanent deforestation.

At current emission levels, the remaining carbon budget for a 50 per cent chance to limit warming to 1.5°C will likely be exceeded in six years.

Global carbon dioxide emissions

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget (2024), the total global fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2024 increased by 0.8 per cent, hitting a record 37.4 billion tonnes.

Fossil fuel CO₂ includes emissions from the combustion and use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and cement production. These emissions account for about 90 per cent of all CO₂ emissions from human activities.

Emissions from all fossil sources increased in 2024 compared to 2023. Coal accounted for 41 per cent of global CO₂ emissions (up 0.2 per cent), oil accounted for 32 per cent (up 0.9 per cent), and natural gas accounted for 21 per cent (up 2.4 per cent).

While fossil fuel CO₂ emissions continue to increase, the average trend in CO₂ emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, have declined. This means that the trend  in total emissions from both fossil fuels and natural sources have stabilised over the last decade.

Even with an overall stable trend, total CO₂ emissions are projected to increase to 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. This is due to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems (due to fires and drought in the Amazon and boreal forests during the first part of the year), and a continued increase in human-induced emissions.

Changes in global fossil CO₂ emissions

Although global emissions have increased, the picture for the top emitting countries varies.

China’s emissions (32 per cent of the global total) increased by 0.2 per cent, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.

The United States’ emissions (13 per cent of global) were down by 0.6 per cent. The rapid retirement of coal-fired power plants drove most of this decline. US coal emissions are the lowest since 1903.

India’s emissions (8 per cent of global) increased by 4.6 per cent. India is the world’s third-largest fossil CO₂ emitter.

European Union emissions (7 per cent of global) are down by 3.8 per cent. This decline was due to strong growth in renewables driving emissions down, in the presence of weak economic growth and high energy prices.

Emissions in the rest of the world (38 per cent of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1 per cent.

During 2014-2023, 22 countries had declining fossil fuel CO₂ emission trends, representing 23 per cent of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, while their economies continued to grow. The list includes France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Portugal, Romania, South Africa, the United Kingdom and USA.

Besides the natural CO₂ sinks, humans are also removing CO₂ from the atmosphere through deliberate activities. We estimate permanent reforestation and afforestation over the past decade have removed about 1.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. This offset around half of the emissions from permanent deforestation.

At current emission levels, the remaining carbon budget for a 50 per cent chance to limit warming to 1.5°C will likely be exceeded in six years.