To assist the Australian Government in developing a national net zero emissions by 2050 plan, the parliament requested that the Climate Change Authority undertake a review of the potential technology transition and emissions pathways in six sectors – electricity and energy, industry and resources, transport, land and agriculture, waste, and the built environment.
The two modelling scenarios analysed in this report were designed by the authority in consultation with CSIRO. The first scenario is a world tracking to a global warming outcome of less than 2°C, with Australia reaching net-zero by 2050. The second, more ambitious, scenario is a world on a trajectory to limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, with Australia reaching net-zero by 2040.
The report presents integrated modelling results showing abatement potential at the sector and subsector level for Australia's economy and energy systems under global and national assumptions for two scenarios described above. The results additionally indicate fuel use breakdown of those sectors over time, and technology uptake where appropriate.
This analysis used a multi-model approach to derive contextualised Australian outputs. The models used were:
- GTEM: 'Global Trade and Environment Model', a global computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of energy and emissions activities.
- LUTO: 'Land Use Trade Offs', a spatially detailed land use change model for rural Australia.
- AusTIMES: an Australian implementation of The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM Systems (TIMES) model under the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project (ETSAP).
More details about the models and modelling methodology can be found in the report.
Download the sectoral pathways modelling report
To assist the Australian Government in developing a national net zero emissions by 2050 plan, the parliament requested that the Climate Change Authority undertake a review of the potential technology transition and emissions pathways in six sectors – electricity and energy, industry and resources, transport, land and agriculture, waste, and the built environment.
The two modelling scenarios analysed in this report were designed by the authority in consultation with CSIRO. The first scenario is a world tracking to a global warming outcome of less than 2°C, with Australia reaching net-zero by 2050. The second, more ambitious, scenario is a world on a trajectory to limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, with Australia reaching net-zero by 2040.
The report presents integrated modelling results showing abatement potential at the sector and subsector level for Australia's economy and energy systems under global and national assumptions for two scenarios described above. The results additionally indicate fuel use breakdown of those sectors over time, and technology uptake where appropriate.
This analysis used a multi-model approach to derive contextualised Australian outputs. The models used were:
- GTEM: 'Global Trade and Environment Model', a global computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of energy and emissions activities.
- LUTO: 'Land Use Trade Offs', a spatially detailed land use change model for rural Australia.
- AusTIMES: an Australian implementation of The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM Systems (TIMES) model under the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project (ETSAP).
More details about the models and modelling methodology can be found in the report.