References and data sources

General climate information

State of the Climate 2010
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2010/CSIRO-State-of-Climate-2010.pdf

State of the Climate 2012
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2012/Climate-Snapshot-2012-Brochure.pdf

State of the Climate 2014
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2014/
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/documents/state-of-the-climate-2014_low-res.pdf

State of the Climate 2016
www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2016
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Assessing-our-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018/Previous-State-of-the-Climate-reports/State-of-the-Climate-2016

CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2015, ‘Climate Change in Australia’, Climate Change in Australia, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2012, ‘Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ CB Field, V Barros, TF Stocker, D Qin, DJ Dokken, KL Ebi, MD Mastrandrea, KJ Mach, G-K Plattner, SK Allen, M Tignor, & PM Midgley (eds), Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf.

IPCC, 2013, ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, Nauels, A, Xia, Y, Bex, V & Midgley, PM (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, pp.1535. http://www.climatechange2013.org/

IPCC, 2018: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)].

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective’, https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/

The Global Carbon Project http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/

World Meteorological Organization WMO ‘Statement on the Status of the Global Climate https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate

Jackson, W, Klekociuk, A, Emmerson, K, Keywood, M, Hibberd, M, Cresswell, I, Murphy, H, Coleman, S, Johnston, E, Clark, G, Argent, R, Mackay, RAM, Metcalfe, D, Evans, K, Bax, N, Smith, DC, Wienecke, B, Cochrane, P & Hatton, T 2016, ‘State of the Environment 2016’, https://www.environment.gov.au/science/soe/.

Keenan, T, Cleugh, H, Braganza, K, Power, S, Trewin, B, Arblaster, J, Timbal, B, Hope, P, Frederiksen, C, McBride, J, Jones, D & Plummer, N 2011, ‘Climate Science Update: A Report to the 2011 Garnaut Review’, Melbourne, http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_036.pdf.

Fourth US National Climate Assessment, Nov 2018: https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4

Key data sources

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Climate Information: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology high quality temperature dataset
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Water Information: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/

Cape Grim greenhouse gas data
https://www.csiro.au/greenhousegases/

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project :Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. and Meehl, G.A. (2012). An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93: 485-498. Datasets: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere: Sea-level data, Sea-Level Rise, http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/.

Boyin Huang, Peter W. Thorne, Viva F. Banzon, Tim Boyer, Gennady Chepurin, Jay H. Lawrimore, Matthew J. Menne, Thomas M. Smith, Russell S. Vose, and Huai-Min Zhang (2017): NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. doi:10.7289/V5T72FNM [accessed Jul 2018]. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html

National Snow and Ice Data Centre: https://nsidc.org/

NOAA Global greenhouse gas reference network
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html.

WMO Status of the Global Observing System for Climate
http://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/status-of-global-observing-system-climate

Australia’s climate

Temperature

Alexander, LV, Hope, P, Collins, D, Trewin, B, Lynch, A & Nicholls, N 2007, ‘Trends in Australia’s climate means and extremes: a global context’, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 56, pp. 1–18.

Alexander, L V. & Arblaster, JM 2009, ‘Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 417–435.

Arblaster, J.M., Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H.H., Trewin, B.C., Wheeler, M.C., Liu, G., Braganza, K., 2014. Understanding Australia’s hottest spring on record. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 12, pp. S37–S41.

Bindoff, NL, Stott, PA, AchutaRao, KM, Allen, MR, Gillett, N, Gutzler, D, Hansingo, K, Hegerl, G, Hu, Y, Jain, S, Mokhov, II, Overland, J, Perlwitz, J, Sebbari, R, Zhang, X, 2013. ‘Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional’. in: Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, Nauels, A, Xia, Y, Bex, V, Midgley, PM (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 867–952.

Black, M.T., Karoly, D.J., King, A.D., 2015. The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heat waves of January 2014. in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 12, pp. S145–S148.

Dittus, AJ, Karoly, DJ, Lewis, SC & Alexander, LV 2015, ‘A multiregional assessment of observed changes in the areal extent of temperature and precipitation extremes’, Journal of Climate, vol. 28, no. 23, pp. 9206–9220.

Donat, MG, Alexander, L V., Yang, H, Durre, I, Vose, R, Dunn, RJH, Willett, KM, Aguilar, E, Brunet, M, Caesar, J, Hewitson, B, Jack, C, Klein Tank, AMG, Kruger, AC, Marengo, J, Peterson, TC, Renom, M, Oria Rojas, C, Rusticucci, M, Salinger, J, Elrayah, AS, Sekele, SS, Srivastava, AK, Trewin, B, Villarroel, C, Vincent, LA, Zhai, P, Zhang, X & Kitching, S 2013, ‘Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 118, no. 5, pp. 2098–2118.

Donat, MG, Alexander, LV, Yang, H, Durre, I, Vose, R & Caesar, J 2013, ‘Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 94, no. 7, pp. 997–1006.

Fawcett, RJB, Trewin, BC, Braganza, K, Smalley, R., Jovanovic, B & Jones, DA 2012, On the sensitivity of Australian temperature trends and variability to analysis methods and observation networks, CAWCR technical report, No 50. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, accessed from http://cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_050.pdf .

Fawcett, RJ., Trewin, BC, Smalley, R & Braganza, K 2013, ‘On the changing nature of Australian monthly and daily temperature anomalies’, in Sense and sensitivity: understanding our changing weather and climate | 19th Annual National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, 11-13 February 2013, p. 317.

Fawcett, R. J. B., & Nairn, J. R. (2014). THE HEATWAVES OF THE 2013 / 2014. In The Heatwaves of the 2013/14 Australian Summer (p. 14 pages).

Herring, SC, Hoerling, MP, Peterson, TC and Stott, PA (Eds) 2014, 'Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective'. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 95, no. 9 (suppl), pp.S1-S104. A collection of studies, available at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Hope, P, Lim, E-P, Wang, G, Hendon, HH & Arblaster, JM 2015, ‘Contributors to the Record High Temperatures Across Australia in Late Spring 2014’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 12, pp. S149–S153.

Karoly, DJ & Braganza, K 2005, ‘Attribution of recent temperature changes in the Australian region’, Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 457–464.

King, A. D., Lewis, SC, Perkins, SE, Alexander, L V., Donat, MG, Karoly, DJ, Black, MT, Alexander, L V. & Nairn, JR 2012, ‘Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, no. 20, pp. 1–5.

Lewis, SC & Karoly, DJ 2013, ‘Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 14, pp. 3708–3709.

Lewis, S, Karoly, D & Yu, M 2014, ‘Quantitative estimates of anthropogenic contributions to extreme national and State monthly, seasonal and annual average temperatures for Australia’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 215–230.

Perkins, SE & Alexander, L V. 2013, ‘On the measurement of heat waves’, Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 13, pp. 4500–4517.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., White, C. J., Alexander, L. V., Argüeso, D., Boschat, G., Cowan, T., … Purich, A. (2016). Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change, 139(1), 101–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0

Rahmstorf, S & Coumou, D 2011, ‘Increase of extreme events in a warming world’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 108, no. 44, pp. 17905–17909.

Steffen, W 2013, The Angry Summer, accessed from https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/angry-summer/ .

Trewin, B & Vermont, H 2010, ‘Changes in the frequency of record temperature in Australia, 1957-2009’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 87–90.

Trewin, B 2013, ‘A daily homogenized temperature data set for Australia’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 1510–1529.

Trewin, B. 2018. 'The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network - Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) version 2'. Bureau Research Report 30, Bureau of Meteorology.

Fire weather

Clarke, H, Lucas, C & Smith, P 2013, ‘Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 931–944.

Dowdy, A. J., & Mills, G. A. (2012). Characteristics of lightning-attributed wildland fires in south-east Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 21(5), 521–524. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10145

Dowdy, A. J., & Mills, G. A. (2012). Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51(11), 2025–2037. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0219.1

Dowdy, A. J., Fromm, M. D., & McCarthy, N. (2017). Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black saturday in southeast Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122(14), 7342–7354. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026577

Dowdy, A. J. (2018). Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57(2), 221–234. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1

Dowdy, A. J., & Pepler, A. (2018). Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(4), 2005–2013. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076654

Lucas, C, Hennessy, K, Mills, G & Bathols, J 2007, 'Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts', Consultancy report for The Climate Institute of Australia by Bushfire CRC, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.115.9902&rep=rep1&type=pdf.

Lucas, C 2010, ‘On developing a historical fire weather data-set for Australia’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 60, pp. 1–14.

Rainfall

Arblaster, JM & Meehl, GA 2006, ‘Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends’, Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 12, pp. 2896–2905.

Brown, JR, Moise, AF, Colman, R & Zhang, H 2016, ‘Will a Warmer World Mean a Wetter or Drier Australian Monsoon?’, Journal of Climate, vol. 29, no. 12, pp. 4577–4596.

Cai, W & Cowan, T 2006, ‘SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction?’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, no. 24, pp. 1–5.

Cai, W & Cowan, T 2008, ‘Dynamics of late autumn rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 9, pp. 1–5.

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2012, Climate and water availability in south-eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), Australia, accessed from http://www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-2Reports/SEACI_Phase2_SynthesisReport.pdf .

Dowdy, AJ, Grose, MR, Timbal, B, Moise, A, Ekstrom, M, Bhend, J & Wilson, L 2015, ‘Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 107–126.

Drosdowsky, W 2005, ‘The latitude of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia: The L index revisited’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 25, no. 10, pp. 1291–1299.

Durack, PJ, Wijffels, SE & Matear, RJ 2012, ‘Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000’, Science, vol. 336, no. 6080, pp. 455–458.

Frederiksen, CS, Frederiksen, JS, Janice, M & Osbrough, SL 2011, ‘Australian winter circulation and rainfall changes and projections’, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 170–188.

Frederiksen, CS & Grainger, S 2015, ‘The role of external forcing in prolonged trends in Australian rainfall’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 45, no. 9-10, pp. 2455–2468.

Gallant, AJE, Hennessy, KJ & Risbey, J 2007, ‘Trends in rainfall indices for six Australian regions: 1910-2005’, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 56, pp. 223–239.

Grose MR, Risbey JS, Black MT, Karoly DJ 2015, ‘Attribution of exceptional mean sea level pressure anomalies south of Australia in August 2014’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 96, no. 12, pp. S158-62.

Grose, M., B. Timbal, L. Wilson, J. Bathols and D. Kent 2015, 'The subtropical ridge in CMIP5 and implications for projections of rainfall in southeast Australia', Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol 65, pp. 5-101.

Hope, P, Grose, MR, Timbal, B, Dowdy, AJ, Bhend, J, Katzfey, JJ, Bedin, T, Wilson, L & Whetton, PH 2015, ‘Seasonal and regional signature of the projected southern Australian rainfall reduction’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 54–71.

Hope, P, Keay, K, Pook, M, Catto, J, Simmonds, I, Mills, G, McIntosh, P, Risbey, J, Berry, G 2014, ‘A comparison of automated methods of front recognition for climate studies: A case study in southwest Western Australia’. Monthly Weather Review, vol. 142, pp. 343–363.

Hope, P, Timbal, B & Fawcett, R 2010, ‘Associations between rainfall variability in the southwest and southeast of Australia and their evolution through time’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 1360–1371.

Hu, Y, Tao, L & Liu, J 2013, ‘Poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations’, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 790–795.

Jovanovic, B, Braganza, K, Collins, D & Jones, D 2012, ‘Climate variations and change evident in high-quality climate data for Australia’s Antarctic and remote island weather stations’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 247–261.

Jovanovic, B, Collins, D, Braganza, K, Jakob, D & Jones, DA 2011, ‘A high-quality monthly total cloud amount dataset for Australia’, Climatic Change, vol. 108, no. 3, pp. 485–517.

Kirono, DGC, Kent, DM, Hennessy, KJ & Mpelasoka, F 2011, ‘Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: Results from 14 global climate models’, Journal of Arid Environments, vol. 75, no. 6, pp. 566–575.

Lim, EP, Hendon, HH, Arblaster, JM, Chung, C, Moise, AF, Hope, P, Young, G & Zhao, M 2016, ‘Interaction of the recent 50-year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 1900, pp. 1–19.

Lucas, C 2010, A high-quality historical humidity database for Australia http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_024.pdf.

Lucas, C and H. Nguyen, 2015 'Regional characteristics of tropical expansion and the role of climate variability', Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 120, pp. 6809-6824.

Murphy, BF & Timbal, B 2008, ‘A review of recent climate variability and climate change in south-eastern Australia’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 28, no. 7, pp. 859–879.

Nicholls, N 2010, ‘Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958-2007’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 835–845.

Pepler, A. S., Alexander, L. V., Evans, J. P., & Sherwood, S. C. (2016). The influence of local sea surface temperatures on Australian east coast cyclones. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121(22), 13,352-13,363. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025495

Pepler, A. S., Di Luca, A., Ji, F., Alexander, L. V., Evans, J. P., & Sherwood, S. C. (2016). Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(1), 334–340. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067267

Pepler, A. S., Alexander, L. V., Evans, J. P., & Sherwood, S. C. (2016). Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in global and regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 123–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2573-6

Pepler, A. S., Fong, J., & Alexander, L. V. (2017). Australian east coast mid-latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble. International Journal of Climatology, 37(4), 2187–2192. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4812

Pepler, A., Di Luca, A., & Evans, J. (2018). Reassessing “objective” databases of ECLs using satellite data. In AMOS-ICSHMO 2018, 5-9 February 2018, Sydney (p. 295).

Pepler, A., Hope, P., & Dowdy, A. (2018). Recent trends and variability in global cyclones and anticyclones. In AMOS-ICSHMO 2018, 5-9 February 2018, Sydney (p. 265).

Polvani, LM, Waugh, DW, Correa, GJP & Son, SW 2011, ‘Stratospheric ozone depletion: the main driver of twentieth-century atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere’, Journal of Climate, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 795–812.

Pook, MJ, Risbey, JS, & McIntosh, PC 2014, ‘A comparative synoptic climatology of cool-season rainfall in major grain-growing regions of southern Australia’, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 117, no. 3–4, pp. 521–533.

Pook, MJ, Risbey, JS, McIntosh, PC, 2012. ‘The synoptic climatology of cool-season rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt of Western Australia’, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 140, pp. 28–43.

Risbey, J, Pook, M, McIntosh, P, Ummenhofer, C, Meyers, G, 2008. ‘Characteristics and variability of synoptic features associated with cool season rainfall in southeastern Australia’, International Journal of Climatology, vo. 29, no. 11, pp. 1595-1613.

Risbey, JS, Pook, MJ, Wheeler, MC & Hendon, HH 2009, ‘On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia’, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 137, no. 10, pp. 3233–3253.

Smith, I 2004, ‘An assessment of recent trends in Australian rainfall’, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol. 53, no. 3, pp. 163–173.

Thompson, DWJ, Solomon, S, Kushner, PJ, England, MH, Grise, KM & Karoly, DJ 2011, ‘Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change’, Nature Geoscience, vol. 4, no. 11, pp. 741–749.

Timbal, B, Arblaster, J, Braganza, K, Fernandez, E, Hendon, H, Murphy, B, Raupach, M, Rakich, C, Smith, I, Whan, K & Wheeler, M 2010, Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across South Eastern Australia, CAWCR technical report No 26. accessed from http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_026.pdf .

Timbal, B, Arblaster, JM & Power, S 2006, ‘Attribution of the late-twentieth-century rainfall decline in southwest Australia’, Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 10, pp. 2046–2062.

Timbal, B & Drosdowsky, W 2013, ‘The relationship between the decline of South-eastern Australian rainfall and the strengthening of the subtropical ridge’, International Journal of Climatology, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 1021–1034.

Timbal, B, Ekström, M, Fiddes, S, Grose, M, Kirono, D, Lim, E, 2016. Climate change science and Victoria, Bureau Research Report, no. 14, pp. 92

Timbal, B & Fawcett, R 2013, ‘A historical perspective on South-eastern Australian rainfall since 1865 using the instrumental record’, Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 1112–1129.

Ummenhofer, CC, England, MH, Mclntosh, PC, Meyers, GA, Pook, MJ, Risbey, JS, Gupta, AS & Taschetto, AS 2009, ‘What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts?’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 1–5.

Watterson, IG 2010, ‘Relationships between south-eastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model’, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 115, no. 10, pp. 1–14.

Heavy rainfall

Christidis, N, Stott, PA, Karoly, DJ & Ciavarella, A 2013, ‘An attribution study of the heavy rainfall over eastern Australia in March 2012’ Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 94, no. 9, pp. S58–S61.

Evans, JP & Boyer-Souchet, I 2012, ‘Local sea surface temperatures add to extreme precipitation in northeast Australia during la Niña’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, no. 10, pp. 12–14.

Gallant, AJE, Karoly, DJ & Gleason, KL 2014, ‘Consistent trends in a modified climate extremes index in the United States, Europe, and Australia’, Journal of Climate, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 1379–1394.

Guerreiro, S. B., Fowler, H. J., Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G., Blenkinsop, S., … Li, X.-F. (2018). Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3

Hendon, HH, Lim, E, Arblaster, JM & Anderson, DLT 2014, ‘Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 42, no. 5-6, pp. 1155–1174.

Hope, P., E.-P. Lim, H. Hendon, and G. Wang, 2018: The Effect of Increasing CO2 on the Extreme September 2016 Rainfall Across Southeastern Australia. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, S133–S138, doi:DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0094.1.

King, AD, Lewis, SC, Perkins, SE, Alexander, L V., Donat, MG, Karoly, DJ & Black, MT 2013, ‘Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-12 Extreme Rainfall over Southeast Australia’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 94, no. 9, pp. S55–S58.

Rafter, A & Abbs, D 2009, ‘An analysis of future changes in extreme rainfall over Australian regions based on GCM simulations and Extreme Value Analysis’, CAWCR Research Letters, no. 3, pp. 44–49, http://www.cawcr.gov.au/researchletters/CAWCR_Research_Letters_3.pdf.

Wentz, FJ, Ricciardulli, L, Hilburn, K & Mears, C 2007, ‘How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?’, Science, vol. 317, no. 5835, pp. 233–235.

Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., … Roberts, N. M. (2014). Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464

Compound events

Dowdy, A. J., & Catto, J. L. (2017). Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Scientific Reports, 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep40359

Walsh, K., White, C. J., McInnes, K., Holmes, J., Schuster, S., Richter, H., … Warren, R. A. (2016). Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail. Climatic Change, 139(1), 55–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7

Wu, W., McInnes, K., O’Grady, J., Hoeke, R., Leonard, M., & Westra, S. (2018). Mapping Dependence Between Extreme Rainfall and Storm Surge. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123(4), 2461–2474. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013472

Streamflow

Fiddes, S & Timbal, B 2016, ‘Assessment and reconstruction of catchment streamflow trends and variability in response to rainfall across Victoria, Australia’, Climate Research, vol. 67, pp. 43-60.

Timbal, B, Griffiths, M. & Tan, KS 2015, ‘Rainfall and streamflows in Greater Melbourne catchment area: variability and recent anomalies’, Climate Research, vol. 63, pp. 215-232.

Zhang XS, Amirthanathan GE, Bari MA, Laugesen RM, Shin D, Kent DM, MacDonald AM, Turner ME, Tuteja NK, 2016, ‘How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 20, no. 9, pp.3947-3965.

Tropical cyclones

Abbs, D 2012, The Impact of Climate Change on the Climatology of Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper no. 11, https://research.csiro.au/climate/wp-content/uploads/sites/54/2016/03/11_WP11-CAF-climchange-tropcyclones.pdf.

Callaghan, J & Power, SB 2011, ‘Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century’, Climate Dynamics, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 647–662.

Dowdy, AJ 2014, ‘Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers’, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 292–298.

Knutson, TR, McBride, JL, Chan, J, Emanuel, K, Holland, G, Landsea, C, Held, I, Kossin, JP, Srivastava, AK & Sugi, M 2010, ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’, Nature Geoscience, vol. 3, pp. 157–163.

Kuleshov, Y, Fawcett, R, Qi, L, Trewin, B, Jones, D, McBride, J & Ramsay, H 2010, ‘Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean’, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 115, no. 1, pp. 1–9.

Snow

Bhend, J., Bathols, J., & Hennessy, K. (2012). Climate change impacts on snow in Victoria. Retrieved from https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP117309&dsid=DS6

Fiddes, S. L., Pezza, A. B., & Barras, V. (2015). Synoptic climatology of extreme precipitation in alpine Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 35(2), 172–188. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3970

Fiddes, S. L., Pezza, A. B., & Barras, V. (2015). A new perspective on Australian snow. Atmospheric Science Letters, 16(3), 246–252. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.549

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T., Bindoff, N.L. (2016) The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts. A Report for the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC.

Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H., Walsh, K., Smith, I. N., Bathols, J. M., Hutchinson, M., & Sharples, J. (2008). Climate change effects on snow conditions in mainland Australia and adaptation at ski resorts through snowmaking. Climate Research, 35(3), 255–270. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00706

Luca, A. Di, Evans, J. P., & Ji, F. (2018). Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections. Climate Dynamics, 51(1–2), 639–666. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3946-9

Marina Pickering, C., & Buckley, R. C. (2010). Climate response by the ski industry: The shortcomings of snowmaking for Australian resorts. Ambio, 39(6), 430–438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0039-y

Pepler, A., Trewin, B., & Ganter, C. (2015). The influence of climate drivers on the Australian snow season. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 65(2), 195–205. https://doi.org/10.22499/2.6502.002

Thompson, J. A. (2016). A modis-derived snow climatology (2000-2014) for the Australian Alps. Climate Research, 68(1), 25–38. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01379

Timbal, B., Ekstrom, M., Fiddes, S., Grose, m., Kirono, d., Lim, E.P., Lucas, C. and Wilson, L. (2016). Climate change science and Victoria. Bureau Research Report No. 014. https://doi.org/10.22499/4.0014

Whetton, P. H., Haylock, M. R., & Galloway, R. (1996). Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. Climatic Change, 32(4), 447–479. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140356

Oceans

Ocean temperature and heat content

Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2016, ‘2016 marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef’. Special statement: http://www.bom.gov.au/environment/doc/marine-heatwave-2016.pdf

Church, JA, White, NJ, Konikow, LF, Domingues, CM, Cogley, JG, Rignot, E, Gregory, JM, van den Broeke, MR, Monaghan, AJ & Velicogna, I 2011, ‘Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 38, no. 18, p. L18601.

Church, JA, White, NJ, Konikow, LF, Domingues, CM, Cogley, JG, Rignot, E, Gregory, JM, van den Broeke, MR, Monaghan, AJ & Velicogna, I 2013, ‘Correction to “Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 15, pp. 4066–4066.

Domingues, CM, Church, JA, White, NJ, Gleckler, PJ, Wijffels, SE, Barker, PM & Dunn, JR 2008, ‘Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise’, Nature, vol. 453, no. 7198, pp. 1090–1093.

Feng, M, McPhaden, MJ, Xie, S-P, & Hafner, J 2013, ‘La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011’, Scientific reports, Vol. 3, p. 1277.

GO-SHIP: The global ocean ship-based hydrographic investigation program
http://www.go-ship.org

Hobday AJ, Alexander LV, Perkins SE, Smale DA, Straub SC, Oliver EC, Benthuysen JA, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Feng M & Holbrook NJ 2016, ‘A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves’. Progress in Oceanography. Vol. 141, pp. 227-238.

Hobday A, Oliver E, McDonald J & Grose M. 2016. Was Tasmania’s summer of fires and floods a glimpse of its climate future? The Conversation, 19 April, https://theconversation.com/was-tasmanias-summer-offires-and-floods-a-glimpse-of-its-climate-future-58055.

Huang, B, Banzon, VF, Freeman, E, Lawrimore, J, Liu, W, Peterson, TC, Smith, TM, Thorne, PW, Woodruff, SD & Zhang, H-MM 2015, ‘Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons’, Journal of Climate, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 911–930.

Johnson, CR, Banks, SC, Barrett, NS, Cazassus, F, Dunstan, PK, Edgar, GJ, Frusher, SD, Gardner, C, Haddon, M, Helidoniotis, F, Hill, KL, Holbrook, NJ, Hosie, GW, Last, PR, Ling, SD, Melbourne-Thomas, J, Miller, K, Pecl, GT, Richardson, AJ, Ridgway, KR, Rintoul, SR, Ritz, DA, Ross, DJ, Sanderson, JC, Shepherd, SA, Slotwinski, A, Swadling, KM, & Taw, N 2011, ‘Climate change cascades: shifts in oceanography, species’ ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania’, Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, Vol. 400, No. 1, pp. 17–32.

Kennedy, JJ 2014, ‘A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea surface temperature’, Reviews of Geophysics March, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 1–32.

Levitus, S, Antonov, JI, Boyer, TP, Baranova, OK, Garcia, HE, Locarnini, RA, Mishonov, A V., Reagan, JR, Seidov, D, Yarosh, ES & Zweng, MM 2012, ‘World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, no. 10, p. L10603.

Liu, W, Huang, B, Thorne, PW, Banzon, VF, Zhang, H-MM, Freeman, E, Lawrimore, J, Peterson, TC, Smith, TM & Woodruff, SD 2015, ‘Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations’, Journal of Climate, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 931–951.

Miles, E, Spillman, C, Jones, DA, Walland, DJ 2016, ‘This summer’s sea temperatures were the hottest on record for Australia: here’s why’, The Conversation, April 5, https://theconversation.com/this-summers-sea-temperatures-were-the-hottest-on-record-for-australia-heres-why-56906.

Oliver, ECJ & Holbrook, NJ 2014, ‘Extending our understanding of south Pacific gyre “spin up”: modeling the East Australian Current in a future climate’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 119, pp. 2788–2805.

Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Bindoff, N. L., Hobday, A. J., Holbrook, N. J., Mundy, C. N., & Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. (2017). The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16101

Oliver, E. C. J., Donat, M. G., Burrows, M. T., Moore, P. J., Smale, D. A., Alexander, L. V., … Wernberg, T. (2018). Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9

Pearce, AF & Feng, M 2013, ‘The rise and fall of the “marine heat wave” off Western Australia during the summer of 2010/2011’, Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 111–112, pp. 139–156.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., King, A. D., Cougnon, E. A., Grose, M. R., Oliver, E. C. J., Holbrook, N. J., … Pourasghar, F. (In Press). The role of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change in the 2017/18 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. BAMS Special Issue Explaining the Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective.

Purkey, SG & Johnson, GC 2010, ‘Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets*’, Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 23, pp. 6336–6351

Purkey, S.G. and Johnson, G.C., 2013. Antarctic bottom water warming and freshening: Contributions to sea level rise, ocean freshwater budgets, and global heat gain*. Journal of Climate, 26 (16), pp.6105-6122.

Rhein, M, Rintoul, SR, Aoki, S, Campos, E, Chambers, D, Feely, RA, Gulev, S, Johnson, GC, Josey, SA, Kostianoy, A, Mauritzen, C, Roemmich, D & Wang, F 2013, ‘Observations: Ocean’, in: Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, Nauels, A, Xia, Y, Bex, V, Midgley, PM (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 255–316

Roemmich, D, Church, J, Gilson, J, Monselesan, D, Sutton, P & Wijffels, S 2015, ‘Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006’, Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 240–245.

Tollefson, J. (2018). Climate change has doubled the frequency of ocean heatwaves. Nature, 10, 16–18. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-05978-1

Wernberg, T, Smale, DA, Tuya, F, Thomsen, MS, Langlois, TJ, de Bettignies, T, Bennett, S, & Rousseaux, CS 2013, ‘An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot’, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 78–82.

Wijffels, S, Roemmich, D, Monselesan, D, Church, J & Gilson, J 2016, ‘Ocean temperatures chronicle the ongoing warming of Earth’, Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 116–118.

Great Barrier Reef

Anthony, K., Bay, L. K., Costanza, R., Firn, J., Gunn, J., Harrison, P., … Walshe, T. (2017). New interventions are needed to save coral reefs. Nature Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0313-5

Australian Bureau of Meteorology. (n.d.). Glossary - ReefTemp Next Generation. Retrieved from http://www.bom.gov.au/environment/activities/reeftemp/glossary.shtml

Australian Bureau of Meteorology. (2016). Marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef. Retrieved from http://www.bom.gov.au/environment/doc/marine-heatwave-2016.pdf

Australian Bureau of Meteorology. (2017). Marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef. Retrieved from http://www.bom.gov.au/environment/doc/marine-heatwave.pdf

Birkeland, C. (2015). Coral reefs in the anthropocene. Coral Reefs in the Anthropocene. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-7249-5

Oceans, A. J. H. | C., Atmosphere Hobart, T. A., of Oceanography Dalhousie University, H. N. S. C., of Excellence for Climate System Science University of Tasmania, H. T. A., Centre, A. S. G. | C. C. R., of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of New South Wales, S. A., … of the United Kingdom The Laboratory, C. H. P. U. K. (2018). Categorizing and Naming Marine Heatwaves. Oceanography, 31. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.205

Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Baird, A. H., Connolly, S. R., Dietzel, A., Eakin, C. M., … Torda, G. (2018). Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature, 556(7702), 492–496. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2

Hughes, T. P., Anderson, K. D., Connolly, S. R., Heron, S. F., Kerry, J. T., Lough, J. M., … Wilson, S. K. (2018). Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science, 359(6371), 80–83. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan8048

Lewis, S. C., & Mallela, J. (2017). A Multifactor Analysis of the Record 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (January), S144–S149. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0074.1

Lough, J. M., Anderson, K. D., & Hughes, T. P. (2018). Increasing thermal stress for tropical coral reefs: 1871-2017. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24530-9

Sea level

Agarwal, N, Jungclaus, JH, Köhl, A, Mechoso, CR & Stammer, D 2015, ‘Additional contributions to CMIP5 regional sea level projections resulting from Greenland and Antarctic ice mass loss’, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 1–8.

Boening, C, Willis, JK, Landerer, FW, Nerem, RS & Fasullo, J 2012, ‘The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, no. 19, p. L19602.

Burgette, RJ, Watson, CS, Church, JA, White, NJ, Tregoning, P & Coleman, R 2013, ‘Characterizing and minimizing the effects of noise in tide gauge time series: relative and geocentric sea level rise around Australia’, Geophysical Journal International, vol. 194, no. 2, pp. 719–736.

Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Balmaseda, M., Bamber, J., Barletta, V., … others. (2018). Global sea-level budget 1993-present. Earth System Science Data, 10(3), 1551–1590.

Church, JA, Clark, PU, Cazenave, A, Gregory, JM, Jevrejeva, S, Levermann, A, Merrifield, MA, Milne, GA, Nerem, RS, Nunn, PD, Payne, AJ, Pfeffer, WT, Stammer, D & Unnikrishnan, AS 2013, ‘Sea level change’, in TF Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex, & PM Midgley (eds), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1137–1216.

Church, JA & White, NJ 2011, ‘Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century’, Surveys in Geophysics, vol. 32, no. 4-5, pp. 585–602.

Fasullo, JT, Boening, C, Landerer, FW & Nerem, RS 2013, ‘Australia’s unique influence on global sea level in 2010-2011’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 16, pp. 4368–4373.

Featherstone, W. E., Penna, N. T., Filmer, M. S., & Williams, S. D. P. (2015). Nonlinear subsidence at Fremantle, a long-recording tide gauge in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120(10), 7004–7014. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011295

Jevrejeva, S, Moore, JC, Grinsted, A & Woodworth, PL 2008, ‘Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 8, p. L08715.

Masters, D, Nerem, RS, Choe, C, Leuliette, E, Beckley, B, White, N & Ablain, M 2012, ‘Comparison of Global Mean Sea Level Time Series from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2’, Marine Geodesy, vol. 35, no. sup1, pp. 20–41.

Ray, RD & Douglas, BC 2011, ‘Experiments in reconstructing twentieth-century sea levels’, Progress in Oceanography, vol. 91, no. 4, pp. 496–515.

Rignot, E, Velicogna, I, Van Den Broeke, MR, Monaghan, A & Lenaerts, J 2011, ‘Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 38, no. 5, p. L05503.

Royston, S., Watson, C. S., Legrésy, B., King, M. A., Church, J. A., & Bos, M. S. (2018). Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123(3), 1978–1993. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013655

Watson, CS, White, NJ, Church, JA, King, MA, Burgette, RJ & Legresy, B 2015, ‘Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era’, Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 565–568.

White, NJ, Haigh, ID, Church, JA, Koen, T, Watson, CS, Pritchard, TR, Watson, PJ, Burgette, RJ, McInnes, KL, You, ZJ, Zhang, X & Tregoning, P 2014, ‘Australian sea levels-trends, regional variability and influencing factors’. Earth-Science Reviews, vol. 136, pp.155-174.

Zhang, X., Church, J. A., Monselesan, D., & McInnes, K. L. (2017). Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(16), 8481–8491. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074176

Ocean acidification

Albright, R., Caldeira, L., Hosfelt, J., Kwiatkowski, L., Maclaren, J. K., Mason, B. M., … Caldeira, K. (2016). Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification. Nature, 531(7594), 362–365. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17155

Hönisch, B., Ridgwell, A., Schmidt, D. N., Thomas, E., Gibbs, S. J., Sluijs, A., … Williams, B. (2012). The geological record of ocean acidification. Science (New York, N.Y.), 335(6072), 1058–1063. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1208277

Hurd, C. L., Lenton, A., Tilbrook, B., & Boyd, P. W. (2018). Current understanding and challenges for oceans in a higher-CO2 world. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0211-0

Kleypas, JA, Feely, RA, Fabry, VJ, Langdon, C, Sabine, CL, Robbins, LL, 2006, ‘Impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs and other marine calcifiers: A guide for future research’. A report from a workshop held 18–20 April 2005, St. Petersburg, FL, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey, 88 pp.

Lenton A, Tilbrook B, Matear RJ, Sasse T, Nojiri Y 2016, ‘Historical reconstruction of ocean acidification in the Australian region’. Biogeosciences, vol. 13, pp. 1753-1765

Raven, J., Caldeira, K., Elderfield, H., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Liss, P., Riebesell, U., … Watson, A. (2005). Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Coral Reefs, 5(June), 60. https://doi.org/10.1080/02688690801911598

Raven, John, Caldeira, K., Elderfield, H., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Liss, P., … Watson, A. (2005). Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Royal Society, (June), 1–68.

Cryosphere

Aaron-Morrison, A. P., Ackerman, S. A., Adams, N. G., Adler, R. F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E. J., … Romanovsky, V. E. (2017). State of the climate in 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(8), Si-S280. https://doi.org/10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.2

Bintanja, R, van Oldenborgh, GJ, Drijfhout, SS, Wouters, B & Katsman, CA 2013, ‘Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion’, Nature Geoscience, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 376–379.

Hobbs, W., Massom, R., Stammerjohn, S., Reid, P., Williams, G., & Meier, W. (2016). A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings. Global and Planetary Change (Vol. 143). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008

Holland, PR & Kwok, R 2012, ‘Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift’, Nature Geoscience, vol. 5, no. 12, pp. 872–875.

Hope, P, Reid, P, Tobin, S, Tully, M, Klekociuk, A & Krummel, P 2015, ‘Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2014): El Niño continues to try to break through, and Australia has its warmest spring on record (again!)’, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, vol. 65, no. 2, pp. 267–292.

Li, X, Holland, DM, Gerber, EP & Yoo, C 2014, ‘Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice’, Nature, vol. 505, no. 7484, pp. 538–542.

Liu, J & Curry, JA 2010, ‘Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 107, no. 34, pp. 14987–14992.

Massom, R., Reid, P., Stammerjohn, S., Raymond, B., Fraser, A., & Ushio, S. (2013). Change and Variability in East Antarctic Sea Ice Seasonality, 1979/80-2009/10. PLoS ONE, 8(5). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0064756

Massom, R. A., Scambos, T. A., Bennetts, L. G., Reid, P., Squire, V. A., & Stammerjohn, S. E. (2018). Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell. Nature, 558(7710), 383–389. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0212-1

Massonnet, F, Guemas, V, Fuckar, NS, & Doblas-Reyes, FJ 2015, ‘The 2014 high record of antarctic sea ice extent’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 12, pp. S163–S167.

Paolo, FS, Fricker, HA & Padman, L 2015, ‘Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating’, Science, vol. 348, no. 6232, pp. 327–331.

Schlosser, E., Alexander Haumann, F., & Raphael, M. N. (2018). Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay. Cryosphere, 12(3), 1103–1119. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1103-2018

Shepherd, A., Fricker, H. A., & Farrell, S. L. (2018). Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0171-6

Shepherd, A., Ivins, E., Rignot, E., Smith, B., Van Den Broeke, M., Velicogna, I., … Wouters, B. (2018). Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y

Stammerjohn, SE, Martinson, DG, Smith, RC, Yuan, X & Rind, D 2008, ‘Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol. 113, no. C03S90, pp. 1–20.

Stammerjohn, S, Massom, R, Rind, D & Martinson, D. 2012, ‘Regions of rapid sea ice change: An inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, no. 6, p. L06501.

Turner, J, Comiso, JC, Marshall, GJ, Lachlan-Cope, TA, Bracegirdle, T, Maksym, T, Meredith, MP, Wang, Z & Orr, A 2009, ‘Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent’, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 36, no. 8, pp. 1–5.

Turner, J., & Comiso, J. (2017). Solve Antarctica’s sea-ice puzzle. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/547275a

Turner, J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., Hosking, J. S., Pope, J. O., Bracegirdle, T. J., & Deb, P. (2017). Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6868–6875. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073656

Vaughan, DG, Comiso, JC, Allison, I, Carrasco, J, Kaser, G, Kwok, R, Mote, P, Murray, T, Paul, F, Ren, J, Rignot, E, Solomina, O, Steffen, K & Zhang, T 2013, ‘Observations: Cryosphere’, in: Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Plattner, G-K, Tignor, M, Allen, SK, Boschung, J, Nauels, A, Xia, Y, Bex, V & Midgley, PM (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 317–382.

Greenhouse gases

Allison, CE & Francey, RJ 2007, ‘Verifying Southern Hemisphere trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide stable isotopes’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 112, no. D21, p. D21304.

Bousquet, P, Ringeval, B, Pison, I, Dlugokencky, EJ, Brunke, E-G, Carouge, C, Chevallier, F, Fortems-Cheiney, A, Frankenberg, C, Hauglustaine, DA, Krummel, PB, Langenfelds, RL, Ramonet, M, Schmidt, M, Steele, LP, Szopa, S, Yver, C, Viovy, N & Ciais, P 2011, ‘Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008’, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 11, no. 8, pp. 3689–3700.

Chevallier, F, Ciais, P, Conway, TJ, Aalto, T, Anderson, BE, Bousquet, P, Brunke, EG, Ciattaglia, L, Esaki, Y, Fröhlich, M, Gomez, A, Gomez-Pelaez, AJ, Haszpra, L, Krummel, PB, Langenfelds, RL, Leuenberger, M, Machida, T, Maignan, F, Matsueda, H, Morguí, JA, Mukai, H, Nakazawa, T, Peylin, P, Ramonet, M, Rivier, L, Sawa, Y, Schmidt, M, Steele, LP & Va, D 2010, ‘CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 115, no. D21, p. D21307.

Derek, N, Krummel, PB and Cleland, SJ (Eds) 2014, 'Baseline atmospheric program Australia 2009-2010', Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/cgbaps/baseline.shtml

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Etheridge, DM, Steele, LP, Langenfelds, RL, Francey, RJ, Barnola, JM & Morgan, VI 1996, ‘Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn’, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 101, no. D2, pp. 4115–4128.

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Future climate

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How do we know which baseline period to use?

The World Meteorological Organization's standard reference period, for use in monitoring long-term climate change, is the 30-year period 1961–1990. State of the Climate 2018 uses that baseline period for long-term averages where suitable data are available. It normally uses the full period of available nationwide data for extremes and frequency distributions. Records from the monitoring of the ocean, atmosphere and land can vary in length, influencing the baselines used.

National records across Australia are available for rainfall from 1900, and for monthly temperature, from consistent thermometer screens, from 1910. Digitised daily temperature records become widespread from 1950 onwards, and hence a period beginning in 1951 is used as the initial baseline for daily temperature distributions.

The measurement of atmospheric constituents such as CO2 began in Mauna Loa, Hawaii in 1958, and clean air baseline measurements started in the mid-1970s at Cape Grim, Tasmania.

High-quality satellite altimeter data has been available for monitoring sea level of the oceans surrounding Australia since 1993. Sea level measurements can also be taken from tide gauges along the Australian coastline.

Archives of in situ sea surface temperature measurements extend back more than 160 years, with increasing spatial coverage in recent decades. The number of ocean temperature profile measurements in the upper 700 m have increased since the 1950s. For depths below 2000 m, ocean temperature profiles are largely measured by ship-based surveys (GO-SHIP) since the 1970s. In 2006, the Argo profiling float array achieved near-global coverage for the upper 2000 m.

Satellite measurements started in the late 1970s and provide information about sea-ice, oceans and land.

The concept of pre-industrial as a baseline period for comparison with recent trends is used in the report. This baseline refers to the climate immediately before the acceleration of human influence such as emissions of greenhouse gases from the 1700s. There is no one official pre-industrial baseline, and observations are very sparse before the 20th Century so slightly different baselines are used for different applications. Read more in this article. For State of the Climate 2018, we have specified in the text, or associated figures, which specific period is being used.

Projections used in this report are from www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au and are generated by global climate models using different greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. These projections are generally compared to a 1986–2005 baseline.