Key points
- Our Ag2050 Scenarios Report examines what productive, resilient and sustainable farming will look like in Australia in 2050.
- The report presents four evidence-based future scenarios, with opportunities and challenges, which paint a picture of Australian farming systems.
- These four scenarios are regional agriculture capitals, landscape stewardship, climate survival and system decline.
Farming is central to Australia. It shapes communities and nourishes our nation. Agriculture accounts for over half of Australia's land use and exports play a key role in our economy. While many Australians may never set foot on a farm, farming impacts us all.
But Australian agriculture is at a crossroads. This is due to shrinking land availability, climate change, changing consumer tastes, and global uncertainties. Farmers are already working hard to be good custodians of the land, but with so many external pressures, it's clear things need to change.
Enter the CSIRO Ag2050 Scenarios Report. This report explores possible futures for Australian agriculture.
The report was a collaborative effort by our team with industry, research, and government stakeholders. Over six months, 100 stakeholders from 54 organisations participated in workshops, reviews, and analyses. Together they examined the question: What might productive, resilient, and sustainable farming systems look like in Australia by 2050?
Exploring potential farming futures
This first stage of a four-year project revealed four evidence-based, plausible futures for Australian farming. Each scenario presenting its own trade-offs, challenges, and opportunities. Some may have more desirable elements, but no one scenario is preferred. Together, they will shape the agricultural landscape of tomorrow.
So, let’s jump to 2050 where the Australian farming scene has evolved in remarkable and sustainable ways.
Scenario 1: Regional Agriculture Capitals
Picture a modern and united agricultural sector that prioritises food and fibre security. Farmers across the country are using their land better to boost production. Meanwhile, large companies enhance productivity and growth in regional areas. This relies on investments from industries like energy, minerals, and tourism, all coming together to boost regional prosperity.
Yet not all regions benefit. Some towns struggle due to a lack of investment. The rise of increasingly larger farms presents challenges for smaller ones. So, inclusive policies are vital to support diversity. Australia is a global leader in food and fibre production. But sustainability and labour accessibility remain key concerns.
Scenario 2: Landscape Stewardship
Imagine an agricultural sector fully embracing new technologies. These technologies boost the environment and energy transition. Farming practices blend with nature. They also tap into Indigenous knowledge to enhance productivity. Technology reduces environmental impacts and optimises water management. These innovations help cut emissions, enabling net-zero farming and carbon offsets.
Through strong coordination, farms prioritise energy transition and restoration. Yet, challenges arise such as disparities between communities. There is also labour competition and tensions between large and small farms. Producers must navigate trade negotiations and sustainability demands as they uphold Australia's reputation as a sustainable goods producer. Governance supports this effort by ensuring domestic food security and industry trust.
Scenario 3: Climate Survival
In this scenario, Australian agriculture tackles climate change head on. It uses innovative technologies and strategic shifts. Farmers combine new technologies with years of experience to maintain productivity levels. They move to better, more productive areas. They also test new farming methods, like growing crops for fuel and hosting farm tourists. Indigenous knowledge supports keeping the environment healthy.
Yet challenges persist. Resources are limited. New farmers lack support, climate change worsens, and overall emissions are high. Also, global regulations complicate the export of Australian produce.
Scenario 4: System Decline
This scenario shows the consequences of inaction. Delayed decisions make farms vulnerable. Farmers feel the impacts of climate change, such as lower yields and profitability. This is a warning to take proactive measures to avoid disaster.
Ploughing towards a bright future
While the challenges are real, the Ag2050 Scenarios Report paints a bright future for Australian agriculture. It calls for quick action, strategic planning and collaboration among farmers, industry, researchers, and government.
The next steps will see our Ag2050 team adapt these scenarios to local areas. They’ll identify key technologies and innovations required for a sustainable future in farming.
By working together, the agricultural sector can build productive, sustainable, and resilient farming systems. This effort will benefit everyone. The time to act is now.
Dig into the future of Australian farming
Join our free CSIRO Conversations event on Tuesday, 11 June 2024, at 11am AEST. Experts from research, government, and industry will discuss the main trade-offs in future Australian farming. Secure your spot today!