Key points
- State of the Climate 2024 shows Australia’s weather and climate has continued to change, with drier conditions, longer fire seasons, intense heavy rainfall, and sea level rises.
- Australia has warmed on average by 1.51°C, which is consistent with global trends, and 2023 was the world’s hottest year on record.
- The report is produced every two years with the Bureau of Meteorology using data from when measurements first began.
Australia has warmed by 1.51°C
Global concentrations of major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have continued to rise, contributing to climate change. This includes carbon, methane and nitrous oxide.
Australia has warmed on average by 1.51°C over land since 1910. Australia’s sea surface temperatures have warmed by 1.08 °C. This is less than the global average for land areas, which is 1.59 °C according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Australia has not crossed the 1.5 °C threshold of the Paris Agreement. This is because the threshold includes both land and ocean temperatures averaged globally. The current global average temperature including land and oceans is 1.10 °C.
However, warming in Australia is projected to continue, with ongoing impacts to our climate and weather. This highlights the pressing need to manage climate risk.
Heat events are increasing, rainfall is decreasing
Eight of the nine warmest years on record in Australia have occurred since 2013. Australia's hottest year on record is 2019.
The number of extreme heat events has increased in all months, especially in summer. There were fewer heat extremes in the period from 2020 to 2023, due to La Niña conditions.
We’ve seen drier conditions across the south-west and south-east of Australia, with more frequent periods of below-average rainfall. We’ve also seen a decrease in snow depth and snow cover in alpine regions since the late 1950s.
Rainfall for April to October in the south-west of Australia has decreased by 16 per cent since 1970. Rainfall for April to October in the south-east of Australia has decreased by nine per cent since 1994.
However, northern Australia has been wetter than average over the last 30 years. Seven of the 10 wettest wet seasons on record for northern Australia have occurred since 1998. Wet season rainfall for October to April has increased by about 20 per cent since 1994.
Heavy rainfall events in Australia are increasing in frequency and intensity.
Fire weather is lasting longer and more severe
There has been an increase in extreme fire weather. Extreme fire weather is happening more often and more intensely.
Fire seasons are longer across large parts of the country, especially in southern Australia.
One of Australia's most severe bushfire seasons, in terms of area burned, was 2023. This was due to high rainfall in 2022 and early-2023 across northern Australia. This produced more grass growth, leading to heavy fuel loads, last year.
Natural variability will continue to play a role from year to year, with an added contribution from climate change. As Australia keeps warming, extreme heat events will become more common and more extreme.
Ocean changes with sea level rise and marine heatwaves
Sea level rise is accelerating. Global mean sea level has risen by about 22 centimetres since 1900. Half of this rise has occurred since 1970. The largest increases are in the north and south-east of Australia.
Average sea surface temperatures are also increasing. Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2010. The highest average sea surface temperature on record is 2022.
The oceans are taking up heat from the atmosphere, with an increase over recent decades. This has led to more ocean acidification, resulting in more frequent marine heatwaves.
Hot days, dry land and intense storms ahead
It’s predicted that Australia will continue to warm, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days.
We will see a further decrease in rainfall across many regions of the south and east. This will likely increase the average duration of drought and increase the number of dangerous fire weather days. We expect there to be fewer tropical cyclones, but they will be more intense. Coastal infrastructure and communities will be at increased risk from sea inundation.
To address this, our extensive monitoring, measuring and reporting for State of the Climate 2024 tells us greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced globally. Although Australian emissions from human activities have declined since 2005, the rate of decline will need to get faster between now and 2030 to meet Australia’s net zero emissions target by 2050.
State of the Climate 2024 highlights the importance of ongoing monitoring and provides the best information available to help manage climate risk, now and into the future. The report, produced every two years and now in its eighth edition, is produced with the Bureau of Meteorology using data from when measurements first began.