Australia’s National 
Science Agency 
Water resource assessment for 
the Victoria catchment 

A report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource 
Assessment for the National Water Grid 

Editors: Cuan Petheram, Seonaid Philip, Ian Watson, Caroline Bruce and Chris Chilcott 







ISBN 978-1-4863-2105-6 (print) 

ISBN 978-1-4863-2106-3 (online) 

Citation 

Petheram C, Philip S, Watson I, Bruce C and Chilcott C (eds) (2024) Water resource assessment for the Victoria catchment. A report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Chapters should be cited in the format of the following example: Bruce C, Petheram C, Philip S and Watson I (2024) Chapter 1: Preamble. In: 
Petheram C, Philip S, Watson I, Bruce C and Chilcott C (eds) (2024) Water resource assessment for the Victoria catchment. A report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Copyright 

© Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 2024. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this 
publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. 

Important disclaimer 

CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised 
and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must 
therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, 
CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, 
damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any 
information or material contained in it. 

CSIRO is committed to providing web accessible content wherever possible. If you are having difficulties with accessing this document, please 
contact Email CSIRO Enquiries
. 

CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment acknowledgements 

This report was funded through the National Water Grid’s Science Program, which sits within the Australian Government’s Department of Climate 
Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. 

Aspects of the Assessment have been undertaken in conjunction with the Northern Territory (NT) Government. 

The Assessment was guided by two committees: 

i. The Assessment’s Governance Committee: CRC for Northern Australia/James Cook University; CSIRO; National Water Grid (Department 
of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water); Northern Land Council; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water 
Security; NT Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade; Office of Northern Australia; Queensland Department of Agriculture and 
Fisheries; Queensland Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water 
ii. The Assessment’s joint Roper and Victoria River catchments Steering Committee: Amateur Fishermen’s Association of the NT; Austrade; 
Centrefarm; CSIRO; National Water Grid (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water); Northern Land Council; 
NT Cattlemen’s Association; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NT Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade; 
NT Farmers; NT Seafood Council; Office of Northern Australia; Parks Australia; Regional Development Australia; Roper Gulf Regional 
Council Shire; Watertrust 


Responsibility for the Assessment’s content lies with CSIRO. The Assessment’s committees did not have an opportunity to review the Assessment 
results or outputs prior to their release. 

This report was reviewed by Dr Brian Keating (Independent consultant). Individual chapters were reviewed by Dr Rebecca Doble, CSIRO (Chapter 2); 
Dr Chris Pavey, CSIRO (Chapter 3); Dr Heather Pasley, CSIRO (Chapter 4); Mr Chris Turnadge, CSIRO (Chapter 5); Dr Nikki Dumbrell, CSIRO (Chapter 
6); Dr Adam Liedloff, CSIRO (Chapter 7). The material in this report draws largely from the companion technical reports, which were themselves 
internally and externally reviewed. 

For further acknowledgements, see page xxv. 

Acknowledgement of Country 

CSIRO acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the lands, seas and waters of the area that we live and work on across Australia. We acknowledge 
their continuing connection to their culture and pay our respects to their Elders past and present. 

Photo 

The Victoria River is the longest singularly named river in the NT with permanent water. Photo: CSIRO – Nathan Dyer


Appendices 





Skull Creek formation - part of the outcropping 
Proterozoic dolostone aquifer in the central 
part of the Victoria catchment 

Photo: CSIRO - Nathan Dyer 



Assessment products 


More information about the Victoria River Water Resource Assessment can be found at 
https://www.csiro.au/victoriariver. The website provides readers with a communications suite 
including factsheets, multimedia content, FAQs, reports and links to other related sites, 
particularly about other research in northern Australia. 

In order to meet the requirements specified in the contracted ‘Timetable for the Services’, the 
Assessment provided the following key deliverables: 

•Technical reports present scientific work at a level of detail sufficient for technical and scientificexperts to reproduce the work. Each of the activities of the Assessment has at least onecorresponding technical report.
•The catchment report (this report) synthesises key material from the technical reports, providingwell-informed but non-scientific readers with the information required to make decisions aboutthe opportunities, costs and benefits associated with water resource development.
•A summary report is provided for a general public audience.
•A factsheet provides key findings for a general public audience.


This appendix lists all such deliverables, plus those jointly delivered for the concurrent Southern 
Gulf Water Resource Assessment. 

Please cite as they appear. 

Methods report 

CSIRO (2021) Proposed methods report for the Victoria catchment. A report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid Authority. CSIRO, 
Australia. 

Technical reports 

Barber M, Fisher K, Wissing K, Braedon P and Pert P (2024) Indigenous water values, rights, 
interests and development goals in the Victoria catchment. A technical report from the 
CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, 
Australia. 

Devlin K (2023) Pump stations for flood harvesting or irrigation downstream of a storage dam. A 
technical report from the CSIRO Victoria and Southern Gulf Water Resource Assessments for 
the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Devlin K (2024) Conceptual arrangements and costings of hypothetical irrigation developments in 
the Victoria and Southern Gulf catchments. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria and 
Southern Gulf Water Resource Assessments for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 


Hayward J (2024) Potential for farm-scale hybrid renewable energy supply options in the Victoria 
and Southern Gulf catchments. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria and Southern Gulf 
Water Resource Assessments for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Hughes J, Yang A, Marvanek S, Wang B, Gibbs M and Petheram C (2024) River model calibration 
for the Victoria catchment. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource 
Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Hughes J, Yang A, Wang B, Marvanek S, Gibbs M and Petheram C (2024) River model scenario 
analysis for the Victoria catchment. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water 
Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Karim F, Kim S, Ticehurst C, Hughes J, Marvanek S, Gibbs M, Yang A, Wang B and Petheram C 
(2024) Floodplain inundation mapping and modelling for the Victoria catchment. A technical 
report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water 
Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Knapton A, Taylor AR and Crosbie RS (2024) Estimated effects of climate change and groundwater 
development scenarios on the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer in the eastern Victoria 
catchment. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for 
the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

McJannet D, Yang A and Seo L (2023) Climate data characterisation for hydrological and 
agricultural scenario modelling across the Victoria, Roper and Southern Gulf catchments. A 
technical report from the CSIRO Victoria River and Southern Gulf Water Resource 
Assessments for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Motson K, Mishra A and Waltham N (2024) A review of water quality studies relevant to northern 
Australia. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria and Southern Gulf Water Resource 
Assessments for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Speed R and Vanderbyl T (2024) Regulatory requirements for land and water development in the 
Northern Territory and Queensland. A technical report from the CSIRO Victoria and Southern 
Gulf Water Resource Assessments for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Stratford D, Kenyon R, Pritchard J, Merrin L, Linke S, Ponce Reyes R, Buckworth R, Castellazzi P, 
Costin B, Deng R, Gannon R, Gao S, Gilbey S, Lachish S, McGinness H and Waltham N (2024) 
Ecological assets of the Victoria catchment to inform water resource assessments. A 
technical report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National 
Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Stratford D, Linke S, Merrin L, Kenyon R, Ponce Reyes R, Buckworth R, Deng RA, Hughes J, 
McGinness H, Pritchard J, Seo L and and Waltham N (2024) Assessment of the potential 
ecological outcomes of water resource development in the Victoria catchment. A technical 
report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water 
Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Taylor AR, Pritchard JL, Crosbie RS, Barry KE, Knapton A, Hodgson G, Mule S, Tickell S and Suckow 
A (2024) Characterising groundwater resources of the Montejinni Limestone and Skull Creek 
Formation in the Victoria catchment, Northern Territory. A technical report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 


Thomas M, Philip S, Stockmann U, Wilson PR, Searle R, Hill J, Gregory L, Watson I and Wilson PL 
(2024) Soils and land suitability for the Victoria catchment, Northern Territory. A technical 
report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water 
Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Vanderbyl T (2024) The Northern Territory’s water planning arrangements. A technical report from 
the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, 
Australia. 

Waschka M and Macintosh A (2024) CSIRO Water Resource Assessments: Indigenous rights and 
interests in Queensland and the Northern Territory. A report from Barraband Consulting to 
CSIRO to inform the CSIRO Victoria, Roper and Southern Gulf Water Resource 
Assessments. CSIRO, Australia. 

Webster A, Jarvis D, Jalilov S, Philip S, Oliver Y, Watson I, Rhebergen T, Bruce C, Prestwidge D, 
McFallan S, Curnock M and Stokes C (2024) Financial and socio-economic viability of 
irrigated agricultural development in the Victoria catchment, Northern Territory. A technical 
report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water 
Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Yang A, Petheram C, Marvanek S, Baynes F, Rogers L, Ponce Reyes R, Zund P, Seo L, Hughes J, 
Gibbs M, Wilson PR, Philip S and Barber M (2024) Assessment of surface water storage 
options in the Victoria and Southern Gulf catchments. A technical report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River and Southern Gulf Water Resource Assessments for the National Water Grid. 
CSIRO Australia. 

Catchment report 

Petheram C, Philip S, Watson I, Bruce C and Chilcott C (eds) (2024) Water resource assessment for 
the Victoria catchment. A report from the CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment 
for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Summary report 

CSIRO (2024) The Victoria River Water Resource Assessment. A summary report from the CSIRO 
Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, Australia. 

Factsheet on key findings 

CSIRO (2024) The Victoria River Water Resource Assessment. Key messages of reports to the 
CSIRO Victoria River Water Resource Assessment for the National Water Grid. CSIRO, 
Australia. 

 


 

Shortened forms 

For more information on this figure or equation or table, please contact CSIRO on enquiries@csiro.au

For more information on this figure or equation or table, please contact CSIRO on enquiries@csiro.au

For more information on this figure or equation or table, please contact CSIRO on enquiries@csiro.au 



Units 

SHORT FORM 

FULL FORM 

$ 

dollars 

% 

per cent 

c 

cents 

cm 

centimetre 

d 

day 

dS 

decisiemens 

DS 

dry season 

g 

gram 

GL 

gigalitre (1,000,000,000 litres) 

GWh 

gigawatt hour 

ha 

hectare 

kg 

kilogram (1000 grams) 

km 

kilometre (1000 metres) 

km2 

square kilometre 

kPa 

kilopascal 

kV 

kilovolt 

kW 

kilowatt 

kWh 

kilowatt hour 

L 

litre 

m 

metre 

m3 

cubic metre 

mBGL 

metres below ground level 

mEGM96 

metres (Earth Gravity Model of 1996) 

mg 

milligram 

ML 

megalitre (1,000,000 litres) 

mm 

millimetre 

MW 

megawatt 

MWh 

megawatt hour 

s 

second 

t 

metric tonne 

y 

year 

°C 

degrees Celsius 



 




List of figures 

Figure 1-1 Map of Australia showing Assessment area (Victoria catchment) and other recent or 
ongoing CSIRO Assessments ........................................................................................................... 3 
Figure 1-2 Number of large dams constructed in Australia and northern Australia over time ..... 8 
Figure 1-3 Schematic of key components and concepts in the establishment of a greenfield 
irrigation development ................................................................................................................... 9 
Figure 1-4 The Victoria catchment ................................................................................................ 13 
Figure 2-1 Schematic diagram of key natural components and concepts in the establishment of 
a greenfield irrigation development ............................................................................................. 19 
Figure 2-2 Soil sampling in the West Baines catchment ............................................................... 22 
Figure 2-3 Surface geology of the Victoria catchment ................................................................. 24 
Figure 2-4 Physiographic units of the Victoria catchment ............................................................ 26 
Figure 2-5 Major geological basins and provinces of the Victoria catchment ............................. 28 
Figure 2-6 The soil generic groups (SGGs) of the Victoria catchment produced by digital soil 
mapping ........................................................................................................................................ 31 
Figure 2-7 Brown Vertosol SGG 9 soils on alluvial plains along the West Baines River. Gilgai 
microrelief is evident .................................................................................................................... 35 
Figure 2-8 A plain with grey Vertosol SGG 9 soils on relict alluvial plains near Top Springs. Linear 
gilgai surface microrelief is evident in the mid-left distance ........................................................ 36 
Figure 2-9 Well-drained red loamy soils (SGG 4.1) with iron nodules on the Sturt Plateau ........ 37 
Figure 2-10 Shallow and rocky soils (SGG 7) on laterite outcrops and scarps of deeply weathered 
landscapes ..................................................................................................................................... 38 
Figure 2-11 (a) Surface soil pH (top 10 cm) of the Victoria catchment as predicted by digital soil 
mapping and (b) reliability of the prediction ................................................................................ 40 
Figure 2-12 (a) Soil thickness of the Victoria catchment as predicted by digital soil mapping and 
(b) reliability of the prediction ...................................................................................................... 41 
Figure 2-13 (a) Soil surface texture of the Victoria catchment as predicted by digital soil 
mapping and (b) reliability of the prediction ................................................................................ 42 
Figure 2-14 (a) Soil permeability of the Victoria catchment as predicted by digital soil mapping 
and (b) reliability of the prediction ............................................................................................... 43 
Figure 2-15 (a) Available water capacity in the upper 100 cm of the soil profile (AWC 100) as 
predicted by digital soil mapping in the Victoria catchment and (b) reliability of the prediction 44 
Figure 2-16 (a) Surface rockiness in soils of the Victoria catchment represented by presence or 
absence as predicted by digital soil mapping and (b) reliability of the prediction ...................... 45 
Figure 2-17 Historical rainfall, potential evaporation and rainfall deficit .................................... 47 
Figure 2-18 Historical monthly rainfall (left) and time series of annual rainfall (right) in the 
Victoria catchment at Auvergne, Yarralin, Kalkarindji and Top Springs ....................................... 50 
Figure 2-19 Historical monthly potential evaporation (PE) (left) and time series of annual PE 
(right) in the Victoria catchment at Auvergne, Yarralin, Kalkarindji and Top Springs .................. 51 
Figure 2-20 (a) Coefficient of variation (CV) of annual rainfall and (b) the CV of annual rainfall 
plotted against mean annual rainfall for 99 rainfall stations around Australia ........................... 52 
Figure 2-21 Runs of wet and dry years at Auvergne, Yarralin, Kalkarindji and Top Springs (1890 
to 2022) ......................................................................................................................................... 54 
Figure 2-22 Percentage change in rainfall and potential evaporation per degree of global 
warming for the 32 Scenario C simulations relative to Scenario A values for the Victoria 
catchment ..................................................................................................................................... 55 
Figure 2-23 Spatial distribution of mean annual rainfall across the Victoria catchment under 
scenarios (a) Cwet, (b) Cmid and (c) Cdry ..................................................................................... 56 
Figure 2-24 (a) Monthly rainfall and (b) potential evaporation for the Victoria catchment under 
scenarios A and C .......................................................................................................................... 56 
Figure 2-25 Simplified schematic diagram of terrestrial water balance in the Victoria catchment 
....................................................................................................................................................... 59 
Figure 2-26 Simplified regional geology of the Victoria catchment ............................................. 62 
Figure 2-27 Simplified regional hydrogeology of the Victoria catchment .................................... 63 
Figure 2-28 Groundwater dependent ecosystems at Kidman Springs ......................................... 64 
Figure 2-29 Major types of aquifers occurring beneath the Victoria catchment ......................... 65 
Figure 2-30 Simplified regional hydrogeology of the Victoria catchment relative to the entire 
spatial extent of the Cambrian limestone across large parts of the Northern Territory ............. 67 
Figure 2-31 Lonely Spring surrounded by dense spring-fed vegetation ....................................... 68 
Figure 2-32 Groundwater bore yields for the major aquifers across the Victoria catchment ..... 69 
Figure 2-33 Groundwater salinity for the major aquifers in the Victoria catchment ................... 71 
Figure 2-34 Bulls Head Spring surrounded by dense spring-fed vegetation ................................ 72 
Figure 2-35 Groundwater bore yields for minor aquifers across the Victoria catchment ........... 74 
Figure 2-36 Jasper Gorge a spectacular sandstone gorge dissecting extensive plateau of low 
open woodlands and spinifex on shallow and rocky soils ............................................................ 75 
Figure 2-37 Groundwater salinity for the minor aquifers in the Victoria catchment .................. 76 
Figure 2-38 Annual recharge estimates for the Victoria catchment ............................................ 78 
Figure 2-39 Summary of recharge statistics to outcropping areas of key hydrogeological units 
across the Victoria catchment ...................................................................................................... 79 
Figure 2-40 Spatial distribution of groundwater discharge classes including surface water – 
groundwater connectivity across the Victoria catchment............................................................ 80 
Figure 2-41 Modelled streamflow under natural conditions ....................................................... 82 
Figure 2-42 Streamflow observation data availability in the Victoria catchment ........................ 83 
Figure 2-43 Median annual streamflow (50% exceedance) in the Victoria catchment under 
Scenario A ..................................................................................................................................... 85 
Figure 2-44 (a) 20% and (b) 80% exceedance of annual streamflow in the Victoria catchment 
under Scenario A ........................................................................................................................... 86 
Figure 2-45 Catchment area and elevation profile along the Victoria River from upstream of 
Kalkarindji to its mouth ................................................................................................................. 86 
Figure 2-46 Mean annual (a) rainfall and (b) runoff across the Victoria catchment under 
Scenario A ..................................................................................................................................... 87 
Figure 2-47 Annual runoff at (a) 20%, (b) 50% and (c) 80% exceedance across the Victoria 
catchment under Scenario A ......................................................................................................... 87 
Figure 2-48 Runoff in the Victoria catchment under Scenario A showing (a) time series of annual 
runoff and (b) monthly runoff averaged across the catchment ................................................... 88 
Figure 2-49 Flood inundation map of the Victoria catchment ..................................................... 89 
Figure 2-50 Flood inundation across the Victoria catchment for a flood event of 1 in 18 annual 
exceedance probability (AEP) in March 2023 ............................................................................... 90 
Figure 2-51 Peak flood discharge and annual exceedance probability (AEP) at (a) gauge 8110006 
(West Baines River at Victoria Highway) and (b) gauge 8110007 (Victoria River at Coolibah 
Homestead) ................................................................................................................................... 91 
Figure 2-52 Riparian vegetation along the West Baines River in the Victoria catchment. These 
areas are subject to regular flooding and the riparian vegetation plays an important role in 
regulating stream water quality. .................................................................................................. 92 
Figure 2-53 Minimum dry-season flow observed at gauging stations 8110006, 8110007 and 
8110113 ........................................................................................................................................ 93 
Figure 2-54 Minimum monthly flow over 132 years of simulation for October, November and 
December ...................................................................................................................................... 94 
Figure 2-55 Instream waterhole evolution in a reach of the Flinders River ................................. 95 
Figure 2-56 Streamflow gauging station in the Victoria catchment ............................................. 95 
Figure 2-57 Location of river reaches containing permanent water in the Victoria catchment .. 96 
Figure 2-58 Baseflow water quality in the Victoria catchment for parameters (a) electrical 
conductivity (EC), (b) chloride concentration, (c) total alkalinity, (d) calcium to sodium ratio, (e) 
silica concentration and (f) turbidity............................................................................................. 97 
Figure 3-1 Schematic diagram of key components of the living and built environment to be 
considered in establishing a greenfield irrigation development ................................................ 103 
Figure 3-2 Conceptual diagram of selected ecological values and assets of the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 108 
Figure 3-3 Location of protected areas and important wetlands within the Victoria catchment 
Assessment area ......................................................................................................................... 110 
Figure 3-4 Observed locations of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) and its modelled probability of 
occurrence in the Victoria catchment ........................................................................................ 119 
Figure 3-5 Observed locations of grunters in the Victoria catchment ....................................... 121 
Figure 3-6 Red-capped plover walking along a shore ................................................................. 123 
Figure 3-7 Distribution of species listed under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity 
Conservation Act and by the NT Government in the Victoria catchment .................................. 125 
Figure 3-8 Boundaries of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) regions 
used for demographic data in this analysis and the Katherine Daly tourism region ................. 128 
Figure 3-9 Land use classification for the Victoria catchment .................................................... 132 
Figure 3-10 Regions in the Northern Prawn Fishery ................................................................... 136 
Figure 3-11 Main commodity mineral occurrences and exploration tenements in the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 139 
Figure 3-12 Jasper Gorge is seasonally accessible on the Buchanan Highway ........................... 140 
Figure 3-13 Road rankings and conditions for the Victoria catchment ...................................... 144 
Figure 3-14 Roads accessible to Type 2 vehicles across the Victoria catchment: minor roads are 
not classified ............................................................................................................................... 145 
Figure 3-15 Common configurations of heavy freight vehicles used for transporting agricultural 
goods in Australia ........................................................................................................................ 146 
Figure 3-16 Road condition and distance to market impact the economics of development in 
the Victoria catchment ............................................................................................................... 146 
Figure 3-17 Mean speed achieved for freight vehicles on the Victoria catchment roads ......... 147 
Figure 3-18 Annual amounts of trucking in the Victoria catchment and the locations of pastoral 
properties .................................................................................................................................... 149 
Figure 3-19 Electricity generation and transmission network in the Victoria catchment .......... 151 
Figure 3-20 Solar photovoltaic capacity factors in the Victoria River catchment ...................... 153 
Figure 3-21 Wind capacity factors in the Victoria River catchment ........................................... 154 
Figure 3-22 Location, type and volume of annual licensed surface water and groundwater 
entitlements ................................................................................................................................ 156 
Figure 3-23 Colonial frontier massacres in the Victoria catchment ........................................... 161 
Figure 3-24 Aboriginal freehold land in the Victoria catchment as at November 2023 ............. 163 
Figure 3-25 Native title claims and determinations in the Victoria catchment as at November 
2023............................................................................................................................................. 164 
Figure 3-26 The Victoria catchment and neighbouring water plans and water control districts 
..................................................................................................................................................... 172 
Figure 4-1 Schematic of agriculture and aquaculture enterprises as well as crop and/or forage 
integration with existing beef enterprises to be considered in the establishment of a greenfield 
irrigation development ............................................................................................................... 192 
Figure 4-2 Area (ha) of the Victoria catchment mapped in each of the land suitability classes for 
14 selected land use combinations (crop group × season × irrigation type) .............................. 200 
Figure 4-3 Agricultural versatility index map for the Victoria catchment .................................. 201 
Figure 4-4 Climate comparisons of Victoria catchment sites with established irrigation areas at 
Katherine (NT) and Kununurra (WA)........................................................................................... 205 
Figure 4-5 Annual cropping calendar for irrigated agricultural options in the Victoria catchment 
..................................................................................................................................................... 207 
Figure 4-6 Soil wetness indices that indicate when seasonal trafficability constraints are likely to 
occur on Vertosols (high clay), Kandosols (sandy loam) and sand at Kidman Springs for (a) a 
threshold of 70% of plant available water capacity (PAWC) and (b) 80% of PAWC ................... 208 
Figure 4-7 Influence of planting date on rainfed grain sorghum yield at Kidman Springs for a (a) 
Kandosol and (b) Vertosol ........................................................................................................... 210 
Figure 4-8 Influence of available irrigation water on grain sorghum yields for planting dates of 
(a) 1 February and (b) 1 August, for a Kandosol with a Kidman Springs climate ....................... 211 
Figure 4-9 Fluctuations in seedless watermelon prices at Melbourne wholesale markets from 
April 2020 to February 2023 ....................................................................................................... 220 
Figure 4-10 Modelled land suitability for Crop Group 7 (e.g. sorghum (grain) or maize) using 
furrow irrigation in the (a) wet season and (b) dry season ........................................................ 232 
Figure 4-11 Sorghum (grain) ....................................................................................................... 234 
Figure 4-12 Modelled land suitability for mungbean (Crop Group 10) in the dry season using (a) 
furrow irrigation and (b) spray irrigation .................................................................................... 236 
Figure 4-13 Mungbean ................................................................................................................ 236 
Figure 4-14 Modelled land suitability for soybean (Crop Group 10) in the dry season using (a) 
furrow irrigation and (b) spray irrigation .................................................................................... 239 
Figure 4-15 Soybean.................................................................................................................... 239 
Figure 4-16 Modelled land suitability for peanut (Crop Group 6) using spray irrigation in the (a) 
wet season and (b) dry season ................................................................................................... 242 
Figure 4-17 Peanut ...................................................................................................................... 242 
Figure 4-18 Modelled land suitability for cotton (Crop Group 7) using furrow irrigation in the (a) 
wet season and (b) dry season ................................................................................................... 246 
Figure 4-19 Cotton ...................................................................................................................... 246 
Figure 4-20 Modelled land suitability for Rhodes grass (Crop Group 14) using (a) spray irrigation 
and (b) furrow irrigation ............................................................................................................. 250 
Figure 4-21 Rhodes grass ............................................................................................................ 250 
Figure 4-22 Modelled land suitability for Cavalcade (Crop Group 13) in the wet season using (a) 
spray irrigation and (b) furrow irrigation .................................................................................... 253 
Figure 4-23 Lablab ....................................................................................................................... 253 
Figure 4-24 Modelled land suitability for (a) cucurbits (e.g. rockmelon, Crop Group 3) using 
trickle irrigation in the dry season and (b) root crops such as onion (Crop Group 6) using spray 
irrigation in the wet season ........................................................................................................ 256 
Figure 4-25 Rockmelon ............................................................................................................... 257 
Figure 4-26 Modelled land suitability for (a) mango (Crop Group 1) and (b) lime (Crop Group 2), 
both grown using trickle irrigation.............................................................................................. 259 
Figure 4-27 Mango ...................................................................................................................... 260 
Figure 4-28 Modelled land suitability for Indian sandalwood (Crop Group 15) grown using (a) 
trickle or (b) furrow irrigation ..................................................................................................... 262 
Figure 4-29 Indian sandalwood and host plants ......................................................................... 262 
Figure 4-30 Black tiger prawns .................................................................................................... 266 
Figure 4-31 Barramundi .............................................................................................................. 266 
Figure 4-32 Schematic of marine aquaculture farm ................................................................... 268 
Figure 4-33 Land suitability in the Victoria catchment for marine species aquaculture in (a) lined 
ponds and (b) earthen ponds ...................................................................................................... 272 
Figure 4-34 Land suitability in the Victoria catchment for freshwater species aquaculture in (a) 
lined ponds and (b) earthen ponds ............................................................................................. 273 
Figure 5-1 Schematic of key engineering and agricultural components to be considered in the 
establishment of a water resource and greenfield irrigation development .............................. 281 
Figure 5-2 Key hydrogeological units of the Victoria catchment ................................................ 291 
Figure 5-3 Hydrogeological cross-section through the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer in the east of 
the Victoria catchment ............................................................................................................... 293 
Figure 5-4 Groundwater pumps powered by the wind provide water points for cattle ............ 294 
Figure 5-5 Depth to the top of the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer .............................................. 295 
Figure 5-6 Depth to standing water level (SWL) of the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer ............... 296 
Figure 5-7 Conceptual block model of part of the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer near Top Springs 
along the eastern margin of the Victoria catchment.................................................................. 297 
Figure 5-8 Location of hypothetical groundwater extraction sites in relation to modelled 
groundwater level reporting sites and modelled discharge at key springs for the Cambrian 
Limestone Aquifer ....................................................................................................................... 298 
Figure 5-9 Perennial localised discharge from the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer to Old Top Spring 
..................................................................................................................................................... 299 
Figure 5-10 Modelled drawdown in groundwater level in the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer (CLA) 
under scenarios (a) B9, (b) B12 and (c) B15 in approximately 2060 .......................................... 301 
Figure 5-11 Outcropping and subcropping areas of the Proterozoic dolostone aquifers in the 
Victoria catchment ...................................................................................................................... 303 
Figure 5-12 North-west to south-east cross-section traversing the dolostone aquifers hosted in 
the Bullita Group ......................................................................................................................... 305 
Figure 5-13 Water sampling at Kidman Springs .......................................................................... 306 
Figure 5-14 The Ord River Irrigation Area 290 km west of Timber Creek has a similar climate and 
some similar soils and climate setting to the Victoria catchment .............................................. 307 
Figure 5-15 Types of managed aquifer recharge ........................................................................ 308 
Figure 5-16 Managed aquifer recharge opportunities for the Victoria catchment, independent 
of distance from a water source for recharge ............................................................................ 310 
Figure 5-17 Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) opportunities in the Victoria catchment (a) within 
5 km of major rivers .................................................................................................................... 311 
Figure 5-18 Topographically more favourable potential storage sites in the Victoria catchment 
based on minimum cost per megalitre storage capacity ........................................................... 315 
Figure 5-19 Topographically and hydrologically more favourable potential storage sites in the 
Victoria catchment based on minimum cost per megalitre yield at the dam wall .................... 317 
Figure 5-20 Victoria catchment hydro-electric power generation opportunity map................. 319 
Figure 5-21 EPBC and NT listed species, water-dependent assets and aggregated modelled 
habitat in the vicinity of the potential dam site on Leichhardt Creek AMTD 26 km .................. 325 
Figure 5-22 Potential dam site on Leichhardt Creek AMTD 26 km: cost and yield at the dam wall 
..................................................................................................................................................... 326 
Figure 5-23 Potential dam site on Victoria River AMTD 283 km: cost and yield at the dam wall 
..................................................................................................................................................... 327 
Figure 5-24 Listed species, water-dependent assets and aggregated modelled habitat in the 
vicinity of the potential dam site on the Victoria River AMTD 283 km ...................................... 328 
Figure 5-25 Schematic cross-section diagram of sheet piling weir ............................................ 330 
Figure 5-26 Rectangular ringtank and 500 ha of cotton in the Flinders catchment (Queensland) 
..................................................................................................................................................... 332 
Figure 5-27 Suitability of land for large farm-scale ringtanks in the Victoria catchment ........... 333 
Figure 5-28 Annual reliability of diverting annual system and reach target volumes for varying 
pump start thresholds ................................................................................................................. 336 
Figure 5-29 Victoria River has the second largest median annual streamflow of any river in the 
NT ................................................................................................................................................ 337 
Figure 5-30 Annual reliability of diverting annual system and reach target volumes for varying 
pump start thresholds assuming end-of-system flow requirement before pumping can 
commence is 500 GL ................................................................................................................... 338 
Figure 5-31 Annual reliability of diverting annual system and reach target volumes for varying 
pump start thresholds assuming end-of-system flow requirement before pumping can 
commence is 700 GL ................................................................................................................... 339 
Figure 5-32 50% annual exceedance (median) streamflow relative to Scenario A in the Victoria 
catchment for varying end-of-system (EOS) requirements assuming a pump start threshold of 
1000 ML/day and a pump capacity of 30 days ........................................................................... 340 
Figure 5-33 80% annual exceedance streamflow relative to Scenario A in the Victoria catchment 
for varying end-of-system (EOS) requirements assuming a pump start threshold of 1000 ML/day 
and a pump capacity of 30 days.................................................................................................. 341 
Figure 5-34 Annual reliability of diverting annual system and reach targets for varying pump 
rates assuming a pump start flow threshold of 1000 ML/day ................................................... 342 
Figure 5-35 Julius Dam on the Leichhardt River ......................................................................... 347 
Figure 5-36 Most economically suitable locations for large farm-scale gully dams in the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 348 
Figure 5-37 Suitability of soils for construction of gully dams in the Victoria catchment .......... 349 
Figure 5-38 Reported conveyance losses from irrigation systems across Australia .................. 356 
Figure 5-39 Efficiency of different types of irrigation system .................................................... 358 
Figure 6-1 Schematic diagram of key components affecting the commercial viability of a 
potential greenfield irrigation development .............................................................................. 367 
Figure 6-2 Locations of the five dams used in this review .......................................................... 389 
Figure 6-3 Trends in gross value of agricultural production (GVAP) in (a) Australia and (b) the NT 
over 40 years (1981–2021) ......................................................................................................... 391 
Figure 6-4 National trends for increasing gross value of irrigated agricultural production (GVIAP) 
as available water supplies have increased for (a) fruits, (b) vegetables, (c) fruits and vegetables 
combined, and (d) total agriculture ............................................................................................ 393 
Figure 6-5 Regions used in the input–output (I–O) analyses relative to the Victoria catchment 
Assessment area ......................................................................................................................... 399 
Figure 7-1 Schematic diagram of the environmental components where key risks can manifest 
during and after the establishment of a greenfield irrigation or aquaculture development, with 
numbers in blue specifying sections in this report ..................................................................... 407 
Figure 7-2 Map of the Victoria catchment and the marine region showing the locations of the 
river system modelling nodes at which flow–ecology dependencies were assessed (numbered) 
and the locations of hypothetical water resource developments ............................................. 419 
Figure 7-3 Habitat weighted change in important flow dependencies for barramundi by scenario 
across model nodes .................................................................................................................... 425 
Figure 7-4 Spatial heatmap of change in important flow dependencies for barramundi, 
considering their distribution across the catchment .................................................................. 427 
Figure 7-5 The change in barramundi flow dependencies under the various water harvesting 
scenarios at sample nodes across the catchment, showing response to system targets and 
pump-start thresholds ................................................................................................................ 429 
Figure 7-6 Habitat weighted change in important flow dependencies for shorebirds under the 
various scenarios across the model nodes ................................................................................. 433 
Figure 7-7 Waterhole fringed by boab trees, Victoria catchment .............................................. 434 
Figure 7-8 Change in important mangroves flow dependencies under the various scenarios .. 435 
Figure 7-9 Riverine landscape, Victoria catchment .................................................................... 437 
Figure 7-10 Spatial heatmap of change to asset–flow dependencies across the Victoria 
catchment, considering change across all assets in the locations in which each of the assets was 
assessed ...................................................................................................................................... 438 
Figure 7-11 Mean change to assets’ important flow dependencies across scenarios and nodes 
..................................................................................................................................................... 439 
Figure 7-12 Mean change to assets’ important flow dependencies across water harvesting 
increments of system target and pump-start threshold, with no end-of-system (EOS) 
requirement and a pump rate of 30 days ................................................................................... 441 
Figure 7-13 The invasion curve with biosecurity actions taken at various stages ..................... 453 
Figure 7-14 Farm biosecurity signage available through www.farmbiosecurity.com.au ........... 454 
List of tables 

Table 2-1 Victoria catchment physiographic unit descriptions, shortened names, areas and 
percentage areas ........................................................................................................................... 27 

Table 2-2 Soil generic groups (SGGs), descriptions, management considerations and correlations 
to Australian Soil Classification (ASC) for the Victoria catchment ................................................ 32 

Table 2-3 Area and proportions covered by each soil generic group (SGG) in the Victoria 
catchment ..................................................................................................................................... 34 

Table 2-4 Projected sea-level rise for the coast of the Victoria catchment ................................. 57 

Table 2-5 Streamflow metrics at gauging stations in the Victoria catchment under Scenario A . 84 

Table 3-1 Freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecological assets with freshwater flow 
dependences ............................................................................................................................... 117 

Table 3-2 Definition of threatened categories under the Commonwealth Environment 
Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 and the NT wildlife classification system .. 126 

Table 3-3 Major demographic indicators for the Victoria catchment ........................................ 129 

Table 3-4 Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) scores of relative socio-economic advantage 
for the Victoria catchment .......................................................................................................... 130 

Table 3-5 Key employment data for the Victoria catchment ..................................................... 131 

Table 3-6 Value of agricultural production for the Victoria catchment (estimated) and the NT for 
2020−21 ...................................................................................................................................... 133 

Table 3-7 Global water consumption in the mining and refining of selected metals ................ 138 

Table 3-8 Overview of commodities (excluding livestock) annually transported into and out of 
the Victoria catchment ............................................................................................................... 148 

Table 3-9 Schools servicing the Victoria catchment ................................................................... 157 

Table 3-10 Number and percentage of unoccupied dwellings and population for the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 158 

Table 4-1 Land suitability classes based on FAO (1976, 1985) as used in the Assessment ........ 198 

Table 4-2 Crop groups and individual land uses evaluated for irrigation (and rainfed) potential 
..................................................................................................................................................... 199 

Table 4-3 Qualitative land evaluation observations for Victoria catchment areas A to E shown in 
Figure 4-3 .................................................................................................................................... 202 

Table 4-4 Crop options for which performance was evaluated in terms of water use, yields and 
gross margins .............................................................................................................................. 204 

Table 4-5 Soil water content at sowing, and rainfall for the 90-day period following sowing for 
three sowing dates, based on a Kidman Springs climate on a Vertosol ..................................... 209 

Table 4-6 Performance metrics for broadacre cropping options in the Victoria catchment: 
applied irrigation water, crop yield and gross margin (GM) for four environments .................. 213 


Table 4-7 Breakdown of variable costs relative to revenue for broadacre crop options ........... 217 

Table 4-8 Sensitivity of cotton crop gross margins ($/ha) to variation in yield, lint prices and 
distance to gin ............................................................................................................................. 218 

Table 4-9 Sensitivity of forage (Rhodes grass) crop gross margins ($/ha) to variation in yield and 
hay price ...................................................................................................................................... 218 

Table 4-10 Performance metrics for horticulture options in the Victoria catchment: annual 
applied irrigation water, crop yield and gross margin ................................................................ 219 

Table 4-11 Sensitivity of watermelon crop gross margins ($/ha) to variation in melon prices and 
freight costs ................................................................................................................................. 221 

Table 4-12 Performance metrics for plantation tree crop options in the Victoria catchment: 
annual applied irrigation water, crop yield and gross margin .................................................... 222 

Table 4-13 Likely annual irrigated crop planting windows, suitability, and viability in the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 225 

Table 4-14 Sequential cropping options for Kandosols .............................................................. 226 

Table 4-15 Production and financial outcomes from the different irrigated forage and beef 
production options for a representative property in the Victoria catchment ........................... 228 

Table 4-16 Summary information relevant to the cultivation of cereals, using sorghum (grain) as 
an example .................................................................................................................................. 233 

Table 4-17 Summary information relevant to the cultivation of pulses, using mungbean as an 
example ....................................................................................................................................... 237 

Table 4-18 Summary information relevant to the cultivation of oilseed crops, using soybean as 
an example .................................................................................................................................. 240 

Table 4-19 Summary information relevant to the cultivation of root crops, using peanut as an 
example ....................................................................................................................................... 243 

Table 4-20 Summary information relevant to the cultivation of cotton .................................... 247 

Table 4-21 Rhodes grass production for hay over 1 year of a 6-year cycle ................................ 251 

Table 4-22 Cavalcade production over a 1-year cycle ................................................................ 254 

Table 4-23 Summary information relevant to row crop horticulture production, with rockmelon 
as an example ............................................................................................................................. 257 

Table 4-24 Summary information relevant to tree crop horticulture production, with mango as 
an example .................................................................................................................................. 260 

Table 4-25 Summary information for Indian sandalwood production ....................................... 263 

Table 4-26 Indicative capital and operating costs for a range of generic aquaculture 
development options .................................................................................................................. 274 

Table 4-27 Gross revenue targets required to achieve target internal rates of return (IRR) for 
aquaculture developments with different combinations of capital costs and operating costs . 276 


Table 5-1 Summary of capital costs, yields and costs per megalitre of supply, including 
operation and maintenance (O&M) ........................................................................................... 285 

Table 5-2 Opportunity-level estimates of the potential scale of groundwater resource 
development in the Victoria catchment ..................................................................................... 289 

Table 5-3 Summary of estimated costs for a 250 ha irrigation development using groundwater 
..................................................................................................................................................... 292 

Table 5-4 Mean modelled groundwater levels at ten locations within the Cambrian Limestone 
Aquifer under extraction scenarios A, B, C and D Locations are shown in Figure 5-8 ............... 300 

Table 5-5 Mean modelled groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration and localised spring 
discharge from the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer at spring complexes along its western margin 
near Top Springs ......................................................................................................................... 302 

Table 5-6 Potential dam sites in the Victoria catchment examined as part of the Assessment 320 

Table 5-7 Summary comments for potential dams in the Victoria catchment .......................... 321 

Table 5-8 Estimated construction cost of 3 m high sheet piling weir......................................... 330 

Table 5-9 Effective volume after net evaporation and seepage for hypothetical ringtanks of 
three mean water depths, under three seepage rates, near the Victoria River Downs in the 
Victoria catchment ...................................................................................................................... 343 

Table 5-10 Indicative costs for a 4000 ML ringtank .................................................................... 344 

Table 5-11 Annualised cost for the construction and operation of three ringtank configurations 
..................................................................................................................................................... 345 

Table 5-12 Levelised costs for two hypothetical ringtanks of different capacities under three 
seepage rates near Victoria River Downs in the Victoria catchment ......................................... 346 

Table 5-13 Actual costs of four gully dams in northern Queensland ......................................... 350 

Table 5-14 Cost of three hypothetical large farm-scale gully dams of capacity 4 GL ................. 350 

Table 5-15 High-level breakdown of capital costs for three hypothetical large farm-scale gully 
dams of capacity 4 GL ................................................................................................................. 351 

Table 5-16 Effective volumes and cost per megalitre for three 4 GL gully dams with various 
mean depths and seepage loss rates based on climate data at Victoria River Downs Station in 
the Victoria catchment ............................................................................................................... 351 

Table 5-17 Cost of construction and operation of three hypothetical 4 GL gully dams............. 352 

Table 5-18 Equivalent annualised cost and effective volume for three hypothetical 4 GL gully 
dams with various mean depths and seepage loss rates based on climate data at Victoria River 
Downs Station in the Victoria catchment ................................................................................... 352 

Table 5-19 Summary of conveyance and application efficiencies .............................................. 355 

Table 5-20 Water distribution and operational efficiency as nominated in water resource plans 
for four irrigation water supply schemes in Queensland ........................................................... 355 

Table 5-21 Application efficiencies for surface, spray and micro irrigation systems ................. 358 


Table 6-1 Types of questions that users can answer using the tools in this chapter ................. 370 

Table 6-2 Indicative capital costs for developing a representative irrigation scheme in the 
Victoria catchment ...................................................................................................................... 374 

Table 6-3 Assumed indicative capital and operating costs for new off- and on-farm irrigation 
infrastructure .............................................................................................................................. 375 

Table 6-4 Price irrigators can afford to pay for water, based on the type of farm, the farm water 
use and the farm annual gross margin (GM), while meeting a target 10% internal rate of return 
(IRR) ............................................................................................................................................. 377 

Table 6-5 Farm gross margins (GMs) required in order to cover the costs of off-farm water 
infrastructure (at the supplier’s target internal rate of return (IRR)) ......................................... 379 

Table 6-6 Water pricing required in order to cover costs of off-farm irrigation scheme 
development (dam, water distribution, and supporting infrastructure) at the investors target 
internal rate of return (IRR) ........................................................................................................ 380 

Table 6-7 Farm gross margins (GMs) required in order to achieve target internal rates of return 
(IRR), given various capital costs of farm development (including an on-farm water source) .. 381 

Table 6-8 Equivalent costs of water per ML for on-farm water sources with various capital costs 
of development, at the internal rate of return (IRR) targeted by the investor .......................... 383 

Table 6-9 Risk adjustment factors for target farm gross margins (GMs), accounting for the 
effects of the reliability and severity (level of farm performance in ‘failed’ years) of the periodic 
risk of water reliability ................................................................................................................ 385 

Table 6-10 Risk adjustment factors for target farm gross margins (GMs) accounting for the 
effects of reliability and the timing of periodic risks .................................................................. 386 

Table 6-11 Risk adjustment factors for target farm gross margins (GMs), accounting for the 
effects of learning risks ............................................................................................................... 387 

Table 6-12 Summary characteristics of the five dams used in this review................................. 389 

Table 6-13 Summary of key issues and potential improvements arising from a review of recent 
dam developments ..................................................................................................................... 390 

Table 6-14 Indicative costs of agricultural processing facilities .................................................. 394 

Table 6-15 Indicative costs of road and electricity infrastructure .............................................. 395 

Table 6-16 Indicative road transport costs between the Victoria catchment and key markets and 
ports ............................................................................................................................................ 395 

Table 6-17 Indicative costs of community facilities .................................................................... 396 

Table 6-18 Key 2021 data comparing the Victoria catchment with the related I–O analysis 
regions ......................................................................................................................................... 399 

Table 6-19 Regional economic impact estimated for the total construction phase of a new 
irrigated agricultural development (based on two independent I–O models) .......................... 401 


Table 6-20 Estimated regional economic impact per year in the Victoria catchment resulting 
from four scales of direct increase in agricultural output (rows) for the different categories of 
agricultural activity (columns) from two I–O models ................................................................. 402 

Table 6-21 Estimated impact on annual household incomes and full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs 
within the Victoria catchment resulting from four scales of direct increase in agricultural output 
(rows) for the various categories of agricultural activity (columns) ........................................... 403 

Table 7-1 Water resource development and climate scenarios explored in the ecology analysis 
..................................................................................................................................................... 420 

Table 7-2 Ecological assets used in the Victoria Water Resource Assessment .......................... 421 

Table 7-3 Descriptive qualitative values for the flow dependencies modelling as percentile 
change of the hydrometrics ........................................................................................................ 423 

Table 7-4 Scenarios of different hypothetical instream dam locations showing end-of-system 
(EOS) flow and mean changes in ecology flows for groups of assets across each asset’s 
respective catchment assessment nodes ................................................................................... 442 

Table 7-5 Examples of significant pest and disease threats to plant industries in the Victoria 
catchment ................................................................................................................................... 447 

Table 7-6 Regional weed priorities and their management actions in the Victoria catchment. 450 

Table 7-7 High-risk freshwater pest fish threats to the Victoria catchment .............................. 451 

Table 7-8 Water quality variables reviewed – their impacts on the environment, aquatic ecology 
and human health ....................................................................................................................... 460